If I make a bet and the line later improves

AlmightyJay · #1 10-31-2006, 07:47 AM

Is it wise to add additional units to the bet?

Ortho · #2 10-31-2006, 08:26 AM

It depends on (at least) 2 things imo:

1. How big your bet was as a %age of your bankroll and what your total risk would be when doubling up.
2. How much respect a market move deserves on what you are betting on. If there is lots of public money coming in on the opposite of the side you like in a huge market (say you've got Milwaukee against the Lakers) then you should be more likely to double up. If it is a smaller event, say a Scottish Second division soccer match, I would assume that someone knew something I didn't and would not only not double up but might look to hedge out of my original bet depending on the situation.

Anyway, those are the factors imo. As 1 gets smaller and the market in 2 gets bigger, I lean toward betting again.

rjp · #3 10-31-2006, 10:45 AM

No.

Thremp · #4 10-31-2006, 02:33 PM

If nothing has changed and you are use Kelly betsizing you almsot always add to it.

Homer · #5 10-31-2006, 05:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If nothing has changed and you are use Kelly betsizing you almsot always add to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good answer.

If you're using any sort of proportional bet sizing, you should be betting more when the line moves in your favor.

AlmightyJay · #6 10-31-2006, 06:14 PM

Thanks for the advice. In this case, I had bet 1% of my bankroll on Phoenix tonight, -4.5 -105, and this morning it had moved to -4.5 -102. But now it's irrelevant as the line is currently -4.5 -107.

rjp · #7 10-31-2006, 06:24 PM

Even if you buy into a kelly betting system for managing your sports betting bankroll a move from -105 to -102 is hardly worth risking more money.

Thremp · #8 10-31-2006, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you buy into a kelly betting system for managing your sports betting bankroll a move from -105 to -102 is hardly worth risking more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

?!?

Proportional edges man. I lay more on the line when my edge is bigger than when it isn't. You offer me 20-1 on a 10-1 shot. And I'm there. And with a decent chunk of change... If you up the payout to 25-1. I'll scrape up a few more dollars.

rjp · #9 10-31-2006, 09:28 PM

We're talking about a move from -105 to -102. That's really not worth much.

Thremp · #10 10-31-2006, 09:46 PM

I'm seeing around a recommended 25% increase in bet size at the new level.

I'm not sure if you'd just hope the difference on or how individuals vary depending on that.

But isn't a move from -105 to -102 ~3% increase in your edge? And in sportsbetting where edges are typically under 10%. I'd say thats huge.