some early Week 9 thoughts

MacGuyV · #1 10-29-2006, 11:10 PM

I happen to like more games than usual next week so here are some preliminary games I like:

Rams -3 vs. Chiefs - this is a rare "double home game" where both of these teams are completely different home & away. This has factored heavily into the last 2 Chargers games and it will be even a bigger factor here since the Chargers are traditionally just as good on the road. With a 3pt spread the Rams just basically have to win outright.

Giants -13 vs. Houston - until the Texans can compete against a good team, I think this has blowout written all over it. Dallas was favored by the same # a few weeks ago and clearly the Giants are better than Dallas. FWIW I liked Houston a couple weeks ago because they match up very well with Jax having cost them a playoff spot with a sweep 2 yrs ago, so I discount that win a bit; plus it's more of a nasty rivalry game than you might think. The Giants played a pretty boring unspectacular game today and won by 2 TD's coming off a big emotional win & short week and while Houston probably is better offensively than Tampa, the discrepancy is much greater on defense where Tampa is much better than Houston.

Buffalo -3.5 vs. GB - As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games. GB is playing better now, but the Bills looked to be clearly a better team in the 1st month. On a neutral field it's close, so the line doesn't look too off. But coming off a bye, at home against a week NFC team when everyone in Western NY is about to jump off a cliff and/or hoping for a loss and a top draft pick is pretty much an annual game where the Bills play well, get a few turnovers, and control the clock. Favre is also due for one of those brutal road games that we've all come to know & love. As for the obligatory anti-homer disclaimer, I've only felt strong about one Bills game previously this yr and then was when I loved Detroit +2 a couple weeks ago and they pretty much dominated.

San Diego -11.5 vs. Cleveland and SF +6.5 vs. Minnesota are other games I like a little but this is already longer than I intended; so I'll open the forum to feedback at this point; thanks for reading.

Lori · #2 10-29-2006, 11:15 PM

The Bills pick looks amazing to me, for the reasons you give sadly so not much to add.

If you made a line for this two weeks ago, you'd have been delighted to have found the Bills -6.5

Lori

niss · #3 10-30-2006, 12:39 AM

My gut feeling was that the following lines would move:

1. Giants -13 (Houston) -- expect to see 13 1/2.

2. Bears - 13 1/2 (Miami) -- expect the public will be all over the Bears and might get it to bust 14.

3. Chargers -12 1/2 (Cleve.) -- same thing, expect to see 13 1/2.

4. Tennessee +9 (Jacksonville) -- this one could see 8 or maybe 7 1/2.

This is gut feeling, off the top of my head. Someone easily might post a little analysis and prove me wrong.

Very curious to see where the Dallas/Washington line opens.

MacGuyV · #4 10-30-2006, 12:43 AM

Fox pregame in DC! That's worse than this week's Atl-Cincy "A game"; though it won't be from a ratings standpoint.

Artdogg · #5 10-30-2006, 05:23 AM

They all look solid, heres my thoughts

Rams/Chiefs- this one im not crazy about, I can see the value with the difference in home and away, Im just wondering if this KC team is capable of going on a similar sick tear like they did last year. They played well in both home and road games during that stretch, although their tough losses were on the road. Its hard to gauge how good that team is at this point (chiefs), but I do think this is a marginally good play. The Rams actually looked a lot better against SD then I thought they would, there was a period of close to 2 quarters where SD didnt have an offensive score, which I didnt expect at all.

Giants/Houston and Chargers/Browns I like about equal, just from everything that has been established so far from these 2 teams I would be really surprised if either of these games werent blowouts without turnovers playing a major role (or backdoor covers.) I probably will also like the chargers team over, which will probably open at 26ish.

I have no clue what to expect from the GB/Buffalo game but you have pretty much been perfect on your Bills predictions.

SF+6.5 vs Minny- This one I also like a good amount. I view Minnesota as a decent team that does a great job in limiting mistakes but also has pretty much played to their competition every game. The niners have been able to put up points at home against everyone theyve played and although their D is horrible, Minny isnt a team to put up a ton of points. Especially with the Vikings off a short week I think this is a reasonable spot for the niners to have a chance at the upset, thus I like them +6.5.

MacGuyV · #6 10-30-2006, 10:34 AM

Yeah, KC did play well and should've won in Dallas last year. Maybe I'm overcompensating for the only game I attended last yr - a 14-3 loss in Buffalo; and the Rams collapse vs. Seattle is a little cause for concern even though I "won" that game. I might lay off of that, I dunno.

I like your thinking on the 49ers. The Vikings remind me a lot of Jacksonville a couple years ago: 2 big DT's in the middle, solid enough to beat bad teams, but I don't think they score enough to be laying those kind of points on the road.

Jibba · #7 10-30-2006, 10:37 AM

I agree quite a bit with the Rams pick. I don't think KC is nearly as good as they have looked their last two games. I don't think they're a good team at all, but I've learned to at least respect Arrowhead. But St. Louis is no easy place to play either.

splashpot · #8 10-31-2006, 04:00 PM

Here are the lines the jump out to me. Seems like I'm taking the road teams this week.

Saints -1 vs Buccaneers
How are the Saints only favored by 1? Yea, they lost this week, but Baltimore is a decent team while TB sucks.

Broncos +2.5 vs Steelers
This line puzzles me just as much as anyone else. The Broncs have beaten tough teams in NE and Baltimore. While the Steelers lost to Oakland. Is Heinz field really that hard to play in?

Bills -3.5 vs Packers
Pretty much the same reasons as everyone above.

greg nice · #9 10-31-2006, 04:43 PM

im on the pack. bills qb is brutal. why is everyone weighing the first few games in the season more than the last few games? does momentum count for anything?

[ QUOTE ]
As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games

[/ QUOTE ]

this could easily be applied to the first 2-3 games just the same

maybe im on the obvious square end of this one, since bills have looked terrible and i thought the line should be pickem or better in fav of the packers, and books are trying to encourage action that way.

MacGuyV · #10 11-01-2006, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
im on the pack. bills qb is brutal. why is everyone weighing the first few games in the season more than the last few games? does momentum count for anything?

[ QUOTE ]
As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games

[/ QUOTE ]

this could easily be applied to the first 2-3 games just the same

maybe im on the obvious square end of this one, since bills have looked terrible and i thought the line should be pickem or better in fav of the packers, and books are trying to encourage action that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that the Bills are clearly a better team or that the 1st month counts more than the last. I was just sort of making a proactive argument against what I thought would be an inevitable: "but GB is playing much better right now" post.

I'll admit that my reasoning basically comes down to: "this is my fav. team and my gut feels are usually right", which I didn't expect to be that well received on a poker board. God knows nobody listened to me before the Lions game; now that a couple people think I know what I'm talking about - it makes me slightly nervous [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] but I still feel pretty good about the game.