Math Question

[Alhazred]

How does one go about calculating the max amt of chips you can lose to an opponent on the river such that they don't retroactively get the implied odds for their flush draw (that hit)?

For example, they call a pot bet on both flop and turn; i want to make a defensive bet on river w good hand, not knowing for sure if they made the flush, but will fold to a sizeable raise (nevermind if this is good play or not).

[ViolentGandhi]

42

[john kane]

(x[squared]+3sinx-245y)/32.149

[headturner1]

[ QUOTE ]
(x[squared]+3sinx-245y)/32.149

[/ QUOTE ]
wrong.

int [e^(x^2)]

you figure that out kid and you will have your answer to everything.

[Punker]

Assuming you are both extremely deep. You don't indicate a raise preflop, so I'll assume that the pot is headsup for 1 big blind each.

Preflop pot is 2 big blinds
On the flop, you bet 2 big blinds and he calls.
Pot is 6 big blinds
On the turn, you bet 6 big blinds + an undetermined amount on the river.
His odds of making a flush at this point are 9/44 (assuming you have no blocking cards), so he'll make it about 1/5. So, for his risk of 6 big blinds on the turn, he has to win 30 big blinds in the hand. When you bet the turn (and before he calls), the pot is 12 big bets. You can bet 18 big blinds on the river maybe?

My poker math is rusty.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

Your whole question is completely senseless, that's why you aren't getting any good answers. On the river, the only thing that matters is to make the most EV play then, implied odds etc. on the turn is completely irrelevant.

[Alhazred]

Ignorant maybe but not senseless :P

Thanks anyway, though; I just didn't look at it from that angle. I guess because it seems a little counterintuitive to me?

Say I can beat a lot of hands that might call me that aren't flushes and I want to make a value bet. I hope to get my straight paid off w a flat-call from two pr, set, sucker str, or whathaveyou, but I'll assume any substantial raise is a flush and fold. If my river bet is allin, the flush wins a huge pot and more than pays for all the times it missed getting poor odds--and I ship out more money than I'd previously received all those times my hand held up. So I want to find a safe bet, a happy medium, but still get max value when i'm ahead.

Am I clouding the issue? Little hard to wrap my head around.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

You have to remember that the 3rd card of a color is scary for him too. Since it is scary and most opponents will assume it is scary for you too, you can't value bet your most marginal hands since you won't be called often enough while ahead, so it you have a marginal hand you have to check to him (not mind the books and thousands of people who will tell you otherwise, they are wrong) and then determine if you call or not dependant on opponent and bet size. With the better hands (like straight etc.) you should bet and dependant on opponent call his raise or fold. A bet made to figure out "where you are at" is tempting, but that kind of play will make good players crush you.

[HighStakesPro]

I disagree. From my experience most of the time they bet a large enough amount so that if they have the flush and get paid off, it justifies calling the flop and turn bets. However sometimes they will bet when they don't have a flush, thinking they have the best hand (you checked so you can't have a flush) or as a bluff (although the texture of the board might allow you to see through some bluff attempts.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

Yeah, they will definately bluff sometimes, some always, that's why I wrote call or fold dependant upon opponent, checkfolding i.e. TPTK here is a huge mistake vs some opponents and the correct plays vs some others. When you check here, this is one of the situations where your reads really provide you a lot of EV (bet size reads especially).