MyTurn's week 10 CFB picks (11/2-11/4)

[MyTurn2Raise]

POTW: N'Western/Iowa U45
WVU/L'ville O54.5
L'ville -1 v WVU
Purdue/Michigan St U56
Indiana/Minny U57.5
tOSU -27 @ Illinois
UGA/Kentucky O49.5
Miss St/Bama O38
USC/Stanford U48.5
LSU -1 @ Tenn
Mizzou +7 @ Nebraska
K St/Colorado U37.5
Zona/Wazzu U39.5
Arkansas/S Carolina O45
Baylor/T Tech O58.5

really soft totals IMO
hopefully, the lines will be just as soft

[MyTurn2Raise]

Oklahoma -1.5 @ Texas A&M
Wisconsin -7 v Penn St
V Tech -2.5 @ Miami

[MyTurn2Raise]

Arizona State/Oregon State U53

gosh...I'm betting both the Sun Devils and the Spartans in the same week....jekyll & hyde deluxe

[MyTurn2Raise]

Illinois/Ohio State U47 good to 45.5

Iggy backed up my initial lean

along with tOSU -27 @ Illinois good to 29.5

The Illini D, especially verse the run and short passes, has been one of the great surprises this season. They can slow down tOSU a 'lil. However, Indiana, Syracuse, and, most recently, Wisconsin exposed that Illinois still cannot cover good passing attacks and great individual receivers.
I'm sure tOSU noticed that if you flood the Ball/Harrison side of the Illini defense, that they get mixed-up and someone squirts free nearly every time. Add in the explosive ability of Ginn, Gonzalez, and scrambling Smith. This equals Buckeye success, but not a total romp as the Illini appear to be able to take away the run. At least they have @ Wisky and @ Penn St the last two weeks.

ON offense, I expect Juice to struggle like crazy. He's confident and good when everything is going well. When it's not, he struggles and becomes a turnover machine. Things won't be going well verse tOSU, so I expect the ball hawking, td prone Buckeyes to create a few turnovers/big plays.
Special teams are a disaster in all forms for the Illini. Remember Indiana running wild on returns? Expect tOSU to do the same. 38-3 Buckeyes.

Ohio State's last 4 games are a good model:
beat Bowling Green 35-7
beat Michigan State 38-7
beat Indiana 44-3
beat Minnesota 44-0

4-7 Illini picks ytd
2-1 O/U, 2-6 ATS

[MyTurn2Raise]

POTW: N'Western/Iowa U45
good to 41.5

Iowa is averaging 44 points in their games. N'western averages 42 points in their games.

Iowa plays a bland defense that stops big plays. N'western has near zero big play potential. Iowa's biggest weakness on D is Sheda's craptacular corner coverage. The Mildcats cannot pounce on that. While they will look better than last week, NW will struggle again.

On the other side, Iowa lacks explosive playmaking ability as well. Their best gamebreaker is the TE Chandler, who is dinged up a bit after taking a huge hit on his TD catch verse N ILL last week. NW's defense isn't good, but there are only so many points Iowa can score chipping 4-8 yards at a time. Expect the clock to run and for possessions to be few.

6-3 POTW ytd

[MyTurn2Raise]

L'ville -1 v WVU good to -2.5
WVU/L'ville O54.5 good to 56.5

In the most anticipated game this week, expect the Cardinal offense to roll at home and the Mountaineers to try to keep up, but fall short.
Last year was a 46-44 victory for the Mountaineers, who return much the same squad on offense and alot of new faces on defense. Louisville is deeper and better this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

L'ville's offense has struggle getting Brohm back in the flow, but the extended rest bodes well. Petrino's offensive genius really excels with the extended break as well in breaking down the WVU defense. WVU hasn't played many good offensive teams. The only one of note is Maryland, who put up 24 points and quite a bit of yardage. Petrino's multi-dimensional, tough to guage offense should roll early and maintain throughout.

The other side of the ball, the model is East Carolina verse West Virginia only with better players on L'ville. The Cardinals are quick, physical, and deep. With extra prep time, Cassity will bring a game plan that is ready for the Mountaineers unique attack. IF WVU cannot get a deep pass every once in awhile, it will be a long day.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Purdue/Mich St U56 good to 54.5

damn...the total moved from 57 to 56 as I tried to place my bet.

Purdue racked up some huge numbers against crappy non-conf foes who are not used to facing the Tiller attack year-in and year-out. When the regular opponents came by, reality turned ugly on the Boilers.
Purdue has scored 27, 21, 17, 3, and 0 verse Minnesota, Notre Dame, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn St respectively.
Michigan State brings somewhere between Minny and ND on defense...closer to ND.
Last week, MSU scored 21 against Indiana and Purdue's defense is very analogous to the Hoosiers on a statistical and personnel basis.
These teams will probably have an extra possession or two, but not enough to reach 56 IMO.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Indiana/Minny U57.5 good to 54.5
Indiana is avg 54 points in its games.
Minny is avg 48 in theirs.

Minny put up 17, 21, 14, 21 in reg, 12, 10, and 0 verse Cal, Purdue, Michigan, Penn St, Wisconsin, ND St, and tOSU respectively. I just argued that Purdue's d is analogous to Indiana's. Here, I expect the Gophers to be below 21 as they are in a tailspin as evidenced by the 10 put up against North Dakota St. On the other side, Minny's d is below average and the Hoosiers seem to be clicking on all cylinders since Hoeppner's return. Add in the Hoosier big returns of late and just over 30 looks about right for Indiana.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Wisconsin -7 v Penn St good only here...don't go above 7 IMO
sticking with the big10 theme

FWIW, I'm 5-2 ATS on Penn ST
and 2-1 ATS on the Badgers

I just don't see how Penn St scores that much here. The Nittany Lions run game is OK, but suffers because the passing game is not a threat despite the depth of quality wideouts PSU has. They are without a qb for what seems to be an every other year occurance. Wisconsin is #2 in all of the land in pass efficiency defense, while Penn St's O is #93 in pass efficiency. I see nothing working there and Wisky gearing up against the run to really shutdown the Nittany Lions.

Penn State brings a balanced top25 defense. The Badgers bring a balanced top25 offense. I think it's Wisky's ability to adjust and attack wherever the vulnerability appears that gets them over the top. I've seen wisconsin attack in at least 4 different ways this year depending on what the defense gives. Bielema's adjustments and gameplan have been tremendous for a first year coach. The only thing that worries me is he lacked the killer instinct verse the Illini last week.

[MyTurn2Raise]

UGA/Kentucky O49.5 good to 50.5

Kentucky is averaging 55 pts in its games.
UGA is averaging 42 points in its games.
Split the difference, right?
NO

Here's why?
Georgia's defense is trending downward and is still reeling since the Volunteers blew the Bulldogs up. At one point, I thought UGA had a top notch defense. That thought disappeared verse the Vols. After surrendering 51 to Tenn, Georgia has allowed 24 to Vandy, 24 to Miss St, and 21 to Florida. All in all, thats 20+ to a below average, an average, and a slightly above average offense. Kentucky brings another slightly above avg offense. They struggled v LSU and Florida, but have succeeded elsewhere. Expect the Wildcats to score 20+ at home in a beautiful fall day in Lexington.

On the other side of the ball, it is again a tale of two seasons for UGA. Starting with Tenn, the offense is finally gelling some; 33 v Tenn, 22 v Vandy, 27 v Miss St, and 14 v the very tough Gators. Kentucky's defense is consistently bad. Expect UGA to look good this week, real good. 30-34 in my estimation.