Wanting to get into sports betting

[AlmightyJay]

Hey everyone, n00b post here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

With my interest in poker declining and my interest in sports increasing, I want to try getting into some light sports betting. I have around $200 I can use as a bankroll, so I'd like to start placing wagers on the NBA. I'm totally new to sports betting, really know nothing about it at all. I've read through the FAQ multiple times. I'm really not sure on how to get going, though.

I was looking through some books for lines for this week, and it seems like a lot of them don't have anything yet. When do they usually come out?

As it pertains to basketball, how do you recognize a good line?

On bet365, they have the Suns at -5 against the Lakers for Tuesday. I was thinking of putting money on this for my first wager. The Suns are such a high-scoring team that I think 5 points is easy to cover. Phil Jackson hasn't returned and Kobe's knee is still iffy (though I think he's playing), so I think the Suns are likely to cover the spread. Does that sound reasonable?

Any advice or flames or anything is highly appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Lori]

Flame number 1.

I don't know enough about NBA to impart any game specific advice, but I thought I'd take a look at this page to make sure you were doing sensible things.

Now I see a -4.5 there, but am aware the lines are sometimes a way behind on that site, so I went to pinnacle to see what the drop down menu said about -5.5 -103 (thinking of dropping to -5 and seeing what odds I get.)

Lo and behold, I find someone who hasn't done their homework,
Tue 10/31 503 Phoenix Suns -4.5 -105

That's without shopping particuarly hard and although Pinnacle's bonus isn't the best for a small roll to get going, you should still be aware of when the bet you are placing is the best available and when it's not. (With the point being that if you don't have an account at a place where the line is much different, then you should likely not be betting on that game.... again, 0.5 might not be in that range, but you will lose several games by 0.5 over the season, who knows if this is one of them)

Lori

[AlmightyJay]

Yeah, bet365 actually updated that line to -4.5 within minutes of me posting this. Regardless, turns out I can't bet on their book anyway, they don't take US residents. But I found the Pinnacle line as well and just deposited on there.

I read in one of the threads that the FAQ linked to that it's a good idea to post your wagers here and explain why you're taking them, so if anyone wants to comment on if my analysis seems logical, that would rock.

[Lori]

Some things to factor in.

- Suns are on the road.
- The books know that the public will favor the Suns (61% is the number I found)
- We have no real form guide for the new season yet

Also I personally think that when "star/name" players get injured that the books take advantage of this to add more than they should onto the line.
Again, my hoops knowledge is reasonably limited, but backing faves on the road in nearly any sport tends to require the best of good situations before it becomes bettable, it's just one of those things where the bookmakers take advantage of the human instinct that "4 points is the same as 4.5 points". You might know the difference but feeling that extra 0.5 is very difficult, so you need additional reasoning to compensate.

Again, I'm not trying to dissuade or encourage this particular bet, just pointing out that you'd need to be happier than normal with your logic to take this exact bet.

Lori

[mulebennett]

one tip of advice, make your unit sizes (aka the size of your bets) 1-2% of your bankroll. so, in your case, $2-4. this is a good and inexpensive way to figure out bankroll management. of course, when you feel that something is a particularly strong play, put $10 on it and call it a 5-unit play. hope that helps