[5/10] Check to Induce, Whiff, Value Bet

[Xhad]

Villain is unknown.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 3 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.75BB, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.75BB, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>

[shark6]

I'm betting that turn again. I think there is a chance you could fold a pocket pair or that you have the best hand. Plus, even when you are behind, you have 9 semi-solid outs to catch up.

As played I'm checking the river behind. I don't see him calling with a hand you beat or folding a better hand after you show weakness checking behind on the turn.

[WalkAmongUs]

i would just bet that turn. its the perfect card for you to continue betting.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a chance you could fold a pocket pair

[/ QUOTE ]

Not very likely IMO.

[ QUOTE ]
or that you have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually why I posted the thread; if I knew I had the best hand I think a check may still be better than betting. I'll elaborate tomorrow.

[Allday Everyday]

I think preflop is good.

I think the flop continuation bet is good.

I think you should have bet the turn with your flush draw, representing a king or better.

When he checks to you on the river, I think you should check. I can't see him calling with a worse hand or folding a better hand enough here to make betting a profitable move.

[meep_42]

My thoughts are that this is almost a textbook case of checking with outs. You're most likely only folding out 4-6 out hands, getting check-raised with the unlikely trips or possibly a K, and a large majority of the time pocket pairs are calling down -- all this while you almost certainly have ~12 outs to win.

-d

[jrz1972]

I like the turn check-behind. The only hands that would probably fold to a bet are hands like AJ and AT, and you would rather let those hands see the river and hopefully contribute another bet when they miss their 3-outer than have them fold now. And of course betting the turn exposes you to a check-raise that you'll have to pay off.

I don't think I'd bet the river. Obviously you'll never fold out a better hand, and it's hard to see how villain could justify a call with anything you beat. If he has AJ, say, he has to know he's beaten.

[JojoDiego]

I think I like the turn play. If you are behind, you would've heard about it on the flop. If you bet the turn, he's probably folding everything you're ahead of, and check-raising when he's ahead. So, yeah, see if you can get him to bluff on the river.

I think the river bet is more iffy, but probably good, too. You're ahead a lot more than you're behind, and he might call out of confusion. Are you folding to a raise?

[Nick Royale]

On the turn I don't think we'll get a better hand to fold and the K means worse hands will most often fold. When the pot is small the value of inducing a bluff on the river is often greater than the value we save by getting worse hands to fold on the turn. Especially when villain is likely to have only 2-3 outs when behind (as in this example). If the pot had been bigger or the chance of villain folding many outs is higher, a bet is better, but this is a good time to check. If this will induce a bluff ~25%+ it's profitable.

I think you should check the river, a hand like AT doesn't beat anything in you 3-betting range here so when he calls I think he has a PP way more often than Ax. Against a tricky player you might even get bluffed off the best hand after showing weakness on the turn.

[JJH3984]

I like it till you bet the river. The % of his range that you beat when he calls is very small.