Can anyone tell me not to bet on St. louis?

[miami32]

I feel like +9.5 is way to many points here. St. louis isn't bad, and they aren't turning the ball over. While San Diego has no real quality wins. I feel like the public over values SD. If KC can put up 30, I have no doubt this will be a close scoring game. Thoughts?

[Shipwreck]

this seems to be the pick of the week.

[MacGuyV]

Yes, the Rams suck ass on the road.

[niss]

This is what one very successful pro football handicapper said about this game:

"This game stands an excellent chance to really show the true colors of the Rams this year. As Deon Sanders said on the NFL Network this past Sunday in talking about the Colts (when you wake up in the morning with that girl you took home the night before and see her without her mascara) you see what she really looks like. The Rams are about to be exposed without their mascara and it won’t be pretty. The Rams have built their 4-2 record against teams like Arizona, Green Bay and Detroit. They defeated the Broncos at home but that was because of a +5 turnover ratio. They lost at home to a Seattle team that isn’t that good this year. They make their first trip on the road this year to face their first above average defense. Against three below average defenses, they haven’t been able to score more than 23 points against Green Bay and 13 and 16 at San Francisco and Arizona. For San Diego, they will play just their third game at home this year and have already won at home by 33 points against Tennessee and 10 points against Pittsburgh. San Diego averages 4.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.0yppl. That’s a good match up for them against a Rams defense allowing 4.5ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.4yps against 5.7yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl. On offense the Rams are just average gaining 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.5yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They face a stiff Chargers defense, who will be without a couple of starters but should have Merriman. SD allows just 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.8yps against 5.6yps and 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl. SD qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 878-703-43. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 79-37-5. My numbers favor SD by 20 and 14 points and suggest about 46 points. Over the past two plus seasons the Rams have gone on the road and faced four above average defenses and scored an average of about 13.5 points. (14, 17, 7 and 16). Meanwhile, they have faced seven above average offenses during that same time. They have allowed an average of 33 points for a deficit of about 20 points. Over the last two plus seasons SD has faced eight below average defenses at home and scored an average of about 36 points. They have faced 13 average offenses and allowed an average of 20 points. When you match up all of those numbers the predicted final is about 35-17 in favor of SD. Just using those numbers from this year would suggest a final of about 31-15. SD has now played four games at home the last two plus seasons (since they became a good team) off a loss and they have won those games by scores of 38-17, 24-17, 45-23, 28-20, 23-13 covering all five games for an average of 32-18. I excluded the game against Denver at the end of the season last year where Brees got hurt. The bottom line here is it appears SD will score somewhere in the mid-thirties while giving up 20 or less points. Being able to run and pass the ball while playing very good defense will make life miserable for the Rams. That along with the solid situations and solid value make this my first 4% play of the year. SAN DIEGO 37 ST LOUIS 17

"This is a 4% play. Nothing more and nothing less. Bet it accordingly. It can certainly come up short with a back door cover or unexpected turnovers. But, it stands an excellent chance of winning. I will also be on the over because of the value and the only way I see the Rams covering is if they score a lot of points, which will help the over. SD should get close to the over themselves so even if their defense shuts down the Rams, this game stands an excellent chance to go over."

[miami32]

That is without a doubt, the best post I have ever read on 2+2.

[rjp]

What exactly does this handicapper mean when he says "an excellent chance of winning"?

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Artdogg]

The rams have gone from extremely overrated in the last couple years to just overrated right now, they may make the playoffs because of their favorable schedule but they are still a bottom 8 NFC team. They are going to get killed unless the Merriman situation has been some distraction (he is playing so i dont think it will have an impact. ) The Chargers are still one of the best teams in the league, that handicapper pretty much covered everything.

[rjp]

If that's the case then why should they even play the game?

[Artdogg]

[ QUOTE ]
If that's the case then why should they even play the game?

[/ QUOTE ]

All I was saying is I agree with that handicappers post. This is the NFL of course, there are no locks, a lot of things can happen. But knowing what we know there is a good chance of a charger blowout given what the chargers have done to mediocre teams etc.

[MacGuyV]

Pretty good post indeed. And that doesn't even begin to cover losses in their last two trips to SF, getting killed @ 3-13 Miami in 2004, and getting hammered in Houston last year for 55 minutes.