77 UTG at a loose table

SlantNGo · #1 10-27-2006, 10:45 PM

The table is generally loose and slightly aggressive (table avg. is 45/15). Villain in question is 45/15/1.2. On the turn, I figure that I'm not good here all that often, but there is a slight chance that BB is betting a worse hand, in which case, I want to get to SD just with him and cheaply. So I was not planning on putting in another bet from that point on.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, SB folds, BB raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10.5SB, 5 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9.25BB, 4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, BB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (15.25BB, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, Hero folds.

Results:
Final pot: 17.25BB

Redd · #2 10-27-2006, 10:47 PM

Postflop looks ok to me. Have I been over in SSNL so long that the new trend is to open-limp pf? Raise it up yo.

edit: I wouldn't fault you for folding the turn, either, since 4-way there's a decent chance that BB or one of the callers has you beat, but I think you're ahead often enough to justify raising against a bunch of terrible players.

PokerSparky · #3 10-27-2006, 10:48 PM

Raise PF. Closing the action I call on the river.

SlantNGo · #4 10-27-2006, 10:52 PM

Why raise PF? I know that just about every other poster here will, but is 77 raised in a 4-way pot against guys who generally don't like to fold really better than 77 unraised in a 6-way pot?

Let's say that these 50% VPIP fellas will play their best 30% vs. a raise. I've used the PokerStove range for 30.2%, and it shows that I only have a 2% edge in equity. Thus, I prefer to play it cheaply for set value at this table.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,956,726 games 7.093 secs 275,867 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.7357 % 26.60% 00.26% { 77 }
Hand 2: 24.4438 % 23.44% 01.12% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 24.4278 % 23.43% 01.11% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 4: 24.3924 % 23.39% 01.12% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Redd · #5 10-27-2006, 11:08 PM

If they're only playing their best 30% then you'll only get ~5*0.3 = 1.5 callers on average. That's surely better than playing 6-handed in a limped pot, especially because (0.7)^3 = 34.3% of the time you'll buy yourself the button.

maniacut · #6 10-28-2006, 02:03 AM

I'll just say that your pokerstove simulation isn't a good one. And raise preflop because you would like to play this against few players. I read something earlier today about raising a pp like this first in (although not as early as utg) the quote was "don't put yourself into a position where you are already drawing" which is what you are doing when limping here.

jt1 · #7 10-28-2006, 02:09 AM

I fold the turn. He donked into 3 players & you can still loose to a draw

soah · #8 10-28-2006, 03:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise PF. Closing the action I call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So CO is betting a five for value and the PFR is calling him with AK (which he donked the turn with)??

PokerSparky · #9 10-28-2006, 03:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise PF. Closing the action I call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So CO is betting a five for value and the PFR is calling him with AK (which he donked the turn with)??

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I can think of a couple other scenarios, but whatever...I've probably made far worse calls on the river. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: I fold the turn anyway.

SlantNGo · #10 10-29-2006, 01:45 PM

Okay, my mistake with the PokerStove scenario. So, let's say each of the 3 behind me are going to play their best 30%. So that's 0.9 callers behind me. Say SB is 40% and BB is 50% (since he only calls 1 bet) so I have 1.8 callers. So, I'll simulate with 2 callers playing 36.2% of their best hands:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,755,241 games 7.531 secs 498,637 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.2049 % 35.89% 00.31% { 77 }
Hand 2: 31.8842 % 30.93% 00.96% { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 31.9112 % 30.96% 00.96% { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Now, if I limp (assuming it doesn't get raised behind me):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

558,004 games 8.078 secs 69,076 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.6876 % 19.37% 00.32% { 77 }
Hand 2: 16.8807 % 15.82% 01.06% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 3: 16.8017 % 15.75% 01.05% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 4: 16.6765 % 15.62% 01.06% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 5: 16.8045 % 15.77% 01.04% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 6: 13.1491 % 12.39% 00.76% { random }

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So I think it's close. Now here is 66 if I raise:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,038,810 games 3.906 secs 521,968 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.4854 % 34.24% 00.26% { 66 }
Hand 2: 32.7414 % 31.81% 00.94% { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 32.7729 % 31.84% 00.94% { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

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And if I limp 66:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

350,157 games 4.766 secs 73,469 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.3403 % 19.04% 00.31% { 66 }
Hand 2: 16.9410 % 15.91% 01.04% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 3: 16.9342 % 15.86% 01.08% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 4: 16.8838 % 15.83% 01.06% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 5: 16.9152 % 15.86% 01.06% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 6: 12.9845 % 12.21% 00.78% { random }

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So do you guys raise 77 here and limp 66? Before I ran these sims, I raised 88 and limped 77. I don't mind limping UTG 6-handed at a loose table, and I don't think it's wrong by any means.