Flopped flush draw with 2 overs with KQs, what to do

Aggromang · #1 10-25-2006, 11:21 PM

Villain seems like a straight player..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($458)
Hero ($200)
UTG ($236.40)
MP ($227.15)
Button ($233.30)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($17) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $15, Hero calls $15.

(How is my play here? Should i have led out? or c/r?)
Turn: ($47) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

I checked the turn, and villain bet $40. What do I do now???

forshure · #2 10-26-2006, 12:44 AM

An often recommended line is to bet/3bet the flop. Although there are many different ways to play the hand and are often player dependant

carnivalhobo · #3 10-26-2006, 12:53 AM

b/3b flop, or c/r push turn, or c/c c/rai all work for me. c/c c/c works too i guess

drewvy · #4 10-26-2006, 01:02 AM

bet to 3bet ai or c/c c/rai are good...c/c c/c is tough if a K or Q comes on the river...

ymu · #5 10-26-2006, 01:02 AM

This looks like an overpair or a set - so you have 9 outs against AA/KK, 12 against QQ, 15 against TT/JJ and 7 against 22/55/88/99. Let's call it 10 on average, so you're just short of 3:1 to hit on the river. To call this turn bet profitably you need to be able win another 80 or so off him if you hit.

You're both deep enough, but you're OOP and would likely have to lead for 2/3 pot on the river to get paid off - unless you think he would bet this much if you checked a club/Q/K river and/or would get a chance to checkraise and get paid off if you were ahead. It seems unlikely you'll get paid off if a club hits, and not very likely if K/Q hits and he doesn't have a set/overpair. I think your implied odds pretty much suck, and your reverse implied odds also suck, so I fold this turn.

I'd lead the flop for around 15, and 3bet AI if I was feeling frisky. Villain dependent.

ymu · #6 10-26-2006, 01:23 AM

I'm not sure we have enough FE to check-push the turn - we probably don't have more than 25% equity against a villain who is firing a pretty determined second barrel. We're giving him 2:1 odds.

Here's the poker stove results with a couple of smaller PPs in there giving him a gutshot.

Board: 8s 5c 2c 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.8523 % 25.85% 00.00% { KcQc }
Hand 2: 74.1477 % 74.15% 00.00% { 55+, 22 }

Of these, he only folds 66-77. Put in A8/A9 and it looks better (more PE and FE) - put in 67 and it looks worse (less PE and FE) - so I'm guessing we have around 25% pot equity and very little FE. We're betting $177 to win $87 FE% of the time and $234 PE% of the time.

If he folds as much as 50% this is an EV of (43.5 + 58.5)-177 = -$75.5.

Push flop (when PE is 45% and FE decent), or fold turn.