JJ NL400 hand

El Tigre · #1 10-25-2006, 04:22 PM

Online site that converter doesnt work, hopefully I can make this easy to read.

5 players at the table (2-4)
Hero 500
Villain 2100
all other stacks are unecessary

Okay hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB. Villain raises to 15.
My read on him is that he has been fairly solid in the 7 or so orbits I have seen. He doesnt seem to be playing a huge amount of pots as you would expect someone with 2.1k at a 2-4 table would.
I repopped it to 40 (first mistake?)
He called

Pot $82
flop 7 8 4
I bet 50 villain raises to 120
you...............

True · #2 10-25-2006, 04:24 PM

fold. He will likely have a pair higher than yours or a set.

True

edit: PF is fine

oyvindgee · #3 10-25-2006, 04:26 PM

Bet 60 on the flop, besides that a good hand if you folded to his raise.

Severus · #4 10-25-2006, 05:30 PM

i think preflop is fine. I would either bet more on the flop or is checking here really bad?

74o_Clownsuit · #5 10-25-2006, 05:33 PM

Your flop bet is so weak that a thinking player's raising range here could be HUGE.

But since you believe him to be solid, this is probably a fold.

delta k · #6 10-25-2006, 05:43 PM

if i knew you were going to laydown an overpair i'd raise your lead here 100% of the time

ImsaKidd · #7 10-25-2006, 06:01 PM

Looks good. I probably push AA/KK though?

kenkaniff · #8 10-25-2006, 06:11 PM

his raise size is not that big looks like possibly trying to induce a call. definitely fold.

AlienBoy · #9 10-25-2006, 06:22 PM

AA/KK I think he'd get it all in PF.

88 Is a possibility.. I wouldn't rule out AK, though QQ is more likely. TT or 99 is a slim possibility.

With a push, he folds everything but a set I think - and since I think we want a fold from him here, the question is, does he have a set?

I'd say a PF raise to 15 with a call of 40 means AK,QQ,TT,99 and only maybe 88 or 77. Possible AQs? AA and KK I think he'd push PF, but maybe wait for a safe flop and then value bet?

So, AK, QQ, TT, 99 - you push, he folds - 88 or 77, he calls. AA and KK he calls.

So - I think you're beat more often than not, and you're 10 to 1 or so to make a set by the river.

If you push, what will he assume you have? And will he think he beats it?

I might have made a pot sized bet on the flop, but as played, I'm leaning toward folding.

AB