($27) Leading with set in raised pot, turn play?

EscapePlan9 · #1 10-25-2006, 12:22 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 (t1950)
CO (t1490)
Button (t1430)
SB (t1370)
BB (t1260)
Hero (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls t20, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t120, MP3 calls t120, 4 folds, Hero calls t100.

Flop: (t390) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t200, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t200.

Turn: (t790) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t450...

I don't know what MP3 was calling with pre-flop or on the flop, but I'll assume he's just a donkey. What's my play on the turn? In retrospect I think I should have check-called incase he was chasing the flush, and also betting out could scare away many hands I can get value from with a river bet, or inducing him to bluff.

reecelights · #2 10-25-2006, 12:36 PM

I check-call the turn here. If he has the flush he probably doens't want to blow you off the hand and you have 9 outs to a boat.

When you lead, you might want to bet closer to 3/4 or full pot on the flop so you're not pricing in flush draws, especially if you get two callers. I sometimes also make a 1/4-1/3 bet hoping for a reraise from an overpair, then poooosh.

EscapePlan9 · #3 10-25-2006, 12:44 PM

I didn't even consider my flop bet... good point. I definitely should have bet closer to 3/4.

HajiShirazu · #4 10-25-2006, 12:56 PM

I would fold preflop when it is 100 coming back. All the calcs that say this call is okay always assume that you always win when you flop a set and that he has an overpair some % of the time that is way too high and that you always stack him every time you hit a set and he has that overpair (this one is probably true though). It isn't bad though really, especially with somebody else in.
I would bet a little more on this flop, that way if you are up against an overpair, he will be totally pot committed on a raise. Actually it matters very little though, nobody would ever fold even AJ on this board regardless of the betting, plus you might get bad calls from <TP hands with this smaller bet. Between getting called with worse vs. protecting against the flush draw, it's pretty much a wash here what % of the pot you bet. I still lean toward ~300 though.
Unless the guy cold calls raises with rag suited cards there are many more top/2nd pair combos than flush combos here and anyone who called a raise with a hand containing a jack is not going to lay most of those down. It sucks if you get raised bc you will usually have to fold away your outs or perhaps even get bluffed but in my mind protecting against a free card to a single club + getting value out of worse hands makes it right to bet here. This might be crappy limit thinking though.

Pudge714 · #5 10-25-2006, 01:07 PM

Fold preflop.
Check shove flop.

EscapePlan9 · #6 10-25-2006, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It isn't bad though really, especially with somebody else in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have dumped it if it were headsup and 100 more to me.

[ QUOTE ]
Check shove flop.

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Why?

EscapePlan9 · #7 10-25-2006, 06:27 PM

Bump. What's my turn play here?

I think check-calling would be better than betting out for three reasons:

1) If he has the flush, he probably won't try to blow me out of the pot and give me a chance to boat up. If I lead into him and he shoves, I'm definitely calling despite the high probability he has a flush. If he actually has the flush, I don't want to put myself all-in here.

2) If he has a weak hand, he won't call my bet when I'm very far ahead. When you hit a set, you want to extract maximum value. Checking induces a bet from a worse hand.

3) If he checks behind on the turn, I'll bet small on the river to price in a call. He'll pretty much have to call with any pair there.