My NFL week 8 picks

[Punker]

I don't know teasers or over/under. I just look at points:

So many juicy lines, where to start...

Game 1: Jacksonville +6.5 vs Philadelphia - uh no. Philly has shown a wonderful tendency to choke away games, and to get scored on a lot late. I actually have Jacksonville as a solid favorite in this game. Jax has been a little up and down this year, beating ok Dallas and Pittsburgh and nearly beating Indy to start, but losing to Washington and Houston. Philly has powered to a 4-3 record on the strength of wins over the terrible three: Houston, San Fran, Green Bay along with a win over Dallas. They have lost to the Giants, New Orleans, and Tampa. When they face a good team, they lose.

Game 2: Seattle +6 vs Kansas City - the books are way way overreacting to the loss of Hasselbeck. Their backup has been in the system for years, and should be able to come in and give a decent performance. Alexander also may be back. Its hard to base much on their past performance due to injuries. KC is 3-3, but two wins have come against San Fran and Arizona, while they are a measly 1-3 against decent teams (Cincy, Denver, Pitt, San Diego).

Game 3: Baltimore +2.5 vs New Orleans - New Orleans owes me some money, and they are going to start paying it back right now by getting whomped by Baltimore. Baltimore is 4-2, but is 2-2 vs good teams (Tampa, San Diego, Denver, Carolina). New Orleans is somehow 3-1 against good teams but this is the week it all comes crashing down. No matter what they do, they'll always be the "ain'ts".

Game 4: NYJ +2 vs Cleveland - how the hell can Cleveland be a favorite over anyone? NYJ are the better team by a long ways. Cleveland is 1-5 this year, having beaten only Oakland. The Jets are 4-3, albeit with a weakish schedule (wins over Tenn, Buff, Miami, Detroit to compare with losses vs New England, Indy, and Jax). Right now, Cleveland has proved they suck. NYJ have at least a chance that they are good.

Game 5: St Louis +9 vs San Diego - San Diego is another choke team and have just had their best defensive player suspended. San Diego has managed to beat Oakland, Tennessee, San Fran this year (and Pittsburgh), while losing to Baltimore and KC. I think this game is essentially a pick'em, so 9 points is like stealing.

[MacGuyV]

Well if nothing else that was entertaining. I personally feel that this week sucks for 'juicy lines'. I kinda like the Jags, don't like the Ravens/Rams, and have no opinion on Seahawks/Jets.

[SomethingClever]

I like your thinking on Seattle and St. Louis, but disagree pretty strongly on Baltimore.

Baltimore's offense sucks, and NO has a killer home field advantage.

[sixers030409]

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I don't know teasers or over/under. I just look at points:

So many juicy lines, where to start...

Game 1: Jacksonville +6.5 vs Philadelphia - uh no. Philly has shown a wonderful tendency to choke away games, and to get scored on a lot late. I actually have Jacksonville as a solid favorite in this game. Jax has been a little up and down this year, beating ok Dallas and Pittsburgh and nearly beating Indy to start, but losing to Washington and Houston. Philly has powered to a 4-3 record on the strength of wins over the terrible three: Houston, San Fran, Green Bay along with a win over Dallas. They have lost to the Giants, New Orleans, and Tampa. When they face a good team, they lose.

Game 2: Seattle +6 vs Kansas City - the books are way way overreacting to the loss of Hasselbeck. Their backup has been in the system for years, and should be able to come in and give a decent performance. Alexander also may be back. Its hard to base much on their past performance due to injuries. KC is 3-3, but two wins have come against San Fran and Arizona, while they are a measly 1-3 against decent teams (Cincy, Denver, Pitt, San Diego).

Game 3: Baltimore +2.5 vs New Orleans - New Orleans owes me some money, and they are going to start paying it back right now by getting whomped by Baltimore. Baltimore is 4-2, but is 2-2 vs good teams (Tampa, San Diego, Denver, Carolina). New Orleans is somehow 3-1 against good teams but this is the week it all comes crashing down. No matter what they do, they'll always be the "ain'ts".

Game 4: NYJ +2 vs Cleveland - how the hell can Cleveland be a favorite over anyone? NYJ are the better team by a long ways. Cleveland is 1-5 this year, having beaten only Oakland. The Jets are 4-3, albeit with a weakish schedule (wins over Tenn, Buff, Miami, Detroit to compare with losses vs New England, Indy, and Jax). Right now, Cleveland has proved they suck. NYJ have at least a chance that they are good.

Game 5: St Louis +9 vs San Diego - San Diego is another choke team and have just had their best defensive player suspended. San Diego has managed to beat Oakland, Tennessee, San Fran this year (and Pittsburgh), while losing to Baltimore and KC. I think this game is essentially a pick'em, so 9 points is like stealing.

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How do you consider Tampa a good team??? They are 2-4 and could very easily and should be 0-6.
Against Cinci down 6 when they were driving Cinci had them stopped and had the game won only to be bailed out by the refs on a very questionable roughing the passer call.

Against Philly they didnt score an offensive TD and were outgained by philly 504-196. They were once again bailed out by a questionable roughing the passer call which turned into a 30 yard penalty, a real gift from the refs and PHilly after arguing the call. This put them in FG range to make it 20-14 which really set them up for the CHANCE to even win. Matt Bryant, who i consider a very average kicker if that kicks a 62 yard FG after his previous career long was 50 and after he was 0-3 from 40+ yards this season. Tampa is one of the bottom 5 teams in the league this season IMO and i don't see them doing better than 4-12.

[CharlieDontSurf]

Notes on above matchups

SEA: Alexander isn't playing..Morris has sucked so far...and Wallace is a weak and inexpiernced backup.

CLE: They just canned their o-cordinator...They lost their corner Baxter for the season.

SD: Merriman isn't suspended--hes appealing it. but their D is incredibly banged up. St L has been prepping for SD all during the bye...so +9 is a steal

Phil: This is a must win game for Phili at home against a team that has been ravaged by injuries and can't seem to score much lately.

[CieloAzor]

The call Tampa got against Cincy wasn't just questionable; it was obscene. We may as well count that game as a Tampa loss because that's what it was.

I'm not sure what Philly's problem is...I've seen all of their games and they clearly seem to be the class of the NFC East. Only the Cowboys and Saints really provided any challenge. The Bucs and Giants games were just given away by untimely mistakes and bad luck. Both teams were thoroughly beaten on both sides of the ball. Most people seem to be writing them off after last week, but they're very unlucky not to be 6-1. If they get their act together, they'll be losing to the Bears in the NFC Championship game.

[Assani Fisher]

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Game 3: Baltimore +2.5 vs New Orleans - New Orleans owes me some money, and they are going to start paying it back right now by getting whomped by Baltimore. Baltimore is 4-2, but is 2-2 vs good teams (Tampa, San Diego, Denver, Carolina). New Orleans is somehow 3-1 against good teams but this is the week it all comes crashing down. No matter what they do, they'll always be the "ain'ts".


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YOu pretty much give no reasoning whatsoever in this paragraph for your pick. Your logic is basically "The Saints have cost me money, and they look good, but I think they'll lose."

[Assani Fisher]

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This is a must win game for

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I would just like to point out that this is the most overused and silly logic on this board. I continually see people use this to defend their picks, and it makes absolutely no sense. Please explain to me why this game is more 'must win' for 4-3 Philly(who is 1/2 game behind the Giants) than it is for 3-3 Jacksonville(who is 3 games behind Indy).

[lastchance]

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This is a must win game for

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I would just like to point out that this is the most overused and silly logic on this board. I continually see people use this to defend their picks, and it makes absolutely no sense. Please explain to me why this game is more 'must win' for 4-3 Philly(who is 1/2 game behind the Giants) than it is for 3-3 Jacksonville(who is 3 games behind Indy).

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I disagree with Assani a lot (MOV matters), but he's spot on here, IMHO. This should only matter when one team wants to rest up for the playoffs.

[CharlieDontSurf]

Because they have lost two consecutive games while the Giants have won two in a row....and they have already lost to the Giants once at home. The Giants are favorites this week then face Houston after...its likely that they will be 6-2 when Phili comes off its bye. If Phili is 4-4..the division race is NYG to lose.

Phili will throw everything out there to win this game...they have a bye the next week so YES this game is a must win. Much like Denver's game prior to their bye etc etc

Jax must win this game to but they won't for completly different reasons..they are falling apart.

Phili has been the best team in their past 3 losses but have given the games away due to stupid mistakes, screwups, and allowing teams to comeback and beat them at the last moment.



They now have a home game against a depleted Jaxville team..if they lose they don't have much of a shot to win the divison and could possibly miss the playoffs unless they go on a hot streak given the way the NFC is shaping up.

Its not that tough of a concept
Certain games are defining in a teams regular season in terms of whether things start to fall apart or they go on a roll....the cowboys were on the bad side of this when they lost to the Giants and ended their season effectivly