Easy final table fold, I guess

[grafyx]

This is from the final table of the full tilt 22k $150 tourney.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1500/t3000
(Ante: t400)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t53644
UTG+1: t39034
MP1: t116927
MP2: t54483
MP3: t125843
CO: t127944
Button: t111360
Hero: t51718
BB: t132047

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t8000</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises all-in t54083</font>, 3 folds, Hero folds


UTG+1 is "lucky seven" (faithless on ps) - I haven't played with him much, but I know he is a very good player. MP2 is unknown to me.

Nath told me he gambles here, that crazy bastard...

As an aside, how does it affect your decision making if you are short stacked and think you might be the 6th or 7th best player at a 9 man final table. Luckily I don't really run into this situation that often, but his final table is filled with very good players. This makes me somewhat more inclined to gamble to get some chips, but I don't feel like this is a good spot to do so.

[DDBeast]

I fold so fast I make their head spin.

[registrar]

Hmmn. I remember a similar hand which I posted on behalf of a friend and this is closer than you might think, simply because MP2 often has AK. However, he has FE and we don't.

I think a stove is in order.

As for being a weaker player - yes, gamble more. However, there is another dynamic in that no one has you comfortably outchipped and there is a parity among bigger stacks meaning that open pushing is somewhat more likely to get through than normal.

This is certainly a push I could see myself making, under the right circumstances - a lot depends on how much I think OR folds and what his calling range is.

[mattmcegg]

gambool!

[4CardStraight]

The pot odds math:

We need to call 51718 to win 119536 (51719x2 + 8000 + 3600ante + 4500 blind)

So we need to be 43.26% equity or better

Now we need a villain range:

Hand 1: 57.0415 % 56.03% 01.01% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 42.9585 % 41.95% 01.01% { TT }

If he is nines or better, top 4.8% of hands, this is a fold. If he is any looser, its a call/gamble.

Hand 1: 53.4756 % 52.53% 00.95% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 46.5242 % 45.58% 00.95% { TT }



Now, the real question... is this villain playing top 4.8% of hands or better (99+ ?)

I would say it might be hard to narrow him that far, and its a call. But, its certainly a grey area

[ASPoker8]

I fold this in a second. Against better players, I want to be opening and getting FE on shoves

[pink bull]

tough spot. this is obv pretty read-dependent.

does anyone find the initial raise suspicious? To me, raising with 20% of your shortish stack (rather than pushing) with antes in the pot means one of two things: its basically a suck bet; or he isn't very good. any read?

i think the re-raiser has a wide range here given his stack size.

you have them both covered and there is potentially a ton of dead money in the pot if initial raiser folds. i think i gamble here - you get a lot more for first than fourth. this is the sort of situation you need to take down if you are gonna win - blinds are big and you ain't got all night to wait for rockets. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[skier_5]

easy fold, though move opener on the button, faithless in the sb, and I think it would be a call.

[swede554]

I'd fold this. I don't think we're ahead of MP2's range, and I'd be worried about UTG+1 too.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot odds math:

We need to call 51718 to win 119536 (51719x2 + 8000 + 3600ante + 4500 blind)

So we need to be 43.26% equity or better

Now we need a villain range:

Hand 1: 57.0415 % 56.03% 01.01% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 42.9585 % 41.95% 01.01% { TT }

If he is nines or better, top 4.8% of hands, this is a fold. If he is any looser, its a call/gamble.

Hand 1: 53.4756 % 52.53% 00.95% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 46.5242 % 45.58% 00.95% { TT }



Now, the real question... is this villain playing top 4.8% of hands or better (99+ ?)

I would say it might be hard to narrow him that far, and its a call. But, its certainly a grey area

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm always dazed by maths but I think, from what I understand, the calculation we have to run is much more complicated than this. We must factor in OR, estimate what he is raising with (which, for a good player not open pushing, isn't that difficult) and then decide which of those hands he puts the rest in with following two pushes behind. So some of the times, we stand to win all three stacks but are up against OR's raise/pushing range and the other guy's rr-pushing range and sometimes we are just up agaisnt the other guy's rr-pushing range with the overlay of the blinds and OR's 8k.

My head's spinning just thinking about it but I've seen a similar excericse done and, as I said, it's closer than you might think.