Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Seven

[Performify]

So far this season has produced very weird, very streaky results for yours truly. I open the season 8-1-1 +16 units the first three weeks, a high i knew was unsustainable, and then massive downer week four thanks to a last-second loss on the Chargers, a slightly profitable week five, then another bomb last week losing every game except a push on one. Showing solid results 4/6 weeks and having those other two weeks erase your profit is frustrating.

This week, all the games are very one-sided in public opinion. For the first time that I can remember in a while, every game but one tracked at Wagerline is a consensus play, and of those every game but one (Pack +5 at Miami) is the favorite. So unless you like the underdogs this week, you're going to be playing with the public.

That said, I actually have more plays this week and stronger plays than usual. This isn't some sort of "oh, we're back to even, lets up the ante" thinking, or tilt from last week. Its just that my system really likes several of these games, and absolutely loves the Game of the Week to the point that its a six-unit play.

As always these are graduated units. If you're using 1%-2% of your bankroll units, cut my units in half and it should be about the same for you (i.e. game of the week goes from a 6u play to 3u, regular games go to .5u, etc).

YTD RESULTS:
10-11-3 on posted picks, -1 unit (excludes teasers)
1-3-2 on Game of the Week, -10.1 units.
2-2 on Tease of the Week, -1 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -2 units

Carolina +3 (+103) at Cincinati
I love this matchup for a couple reasons. Cinci is struggling on the offensive line, forced to start rookie Andrew Whitworth in place of injured left tackle Levi Jones. That moves Eric Steinbach to left guard, and Eric Ghiaciuc to center. So one rookie starting, and two linemen starting in off positions. And the Bengals can’t afford to help out on the left side, as the Panthers have Julius Peppers at the right end, who is having an absolutely phenomenal year so far. Cinci has struggled on the ground recently, failing to rush for 100 yards in three consecutive games. Carolina as well hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in its last four games, games which they’ve won. Cinci is struggling on defense, faced with numerous key injuries with three starters expected out: safety Dexter Jackson, linebackers Rashad Jeanty and Brian Simmons, plus DT Sam Adams is banged up but expected to play.

The Bengals have surrendered an average of 177 yards rushing the past three games, losing two of the three. Bengals opponents have all done the same thing in the past few weeks: played a lot of deep Cover 3 zone, limiting the big passes and forcing Cinci to throw short and try to get yards in chunks instead. Look for the Panthers to load up on the run and play deep zone, forcing Palmer to throw short passes based on defensive pressure. The Bengals are outmatched on defense, with corners Deltha O’Neal and Tory James both outmatched by Steve Smith and Meshawn Johnson.

The Panthers put up 414 yards against the league's second-ranked defense last week. Look for them to likewise explode against a depleted, struggling Bengals defense. Panthers 28, Bengals 17. Game of the Week. Also worth a one-unit play on the moneyline (+149).

Philly -6 (-104) at Tampa Bay
The case of the unstoppable offense versus the... well, mediocre defense. The Eagles have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 402 yards per game, while the Buccaneers' defense is allowing 324.4 yards per game.

Tampa Bay gave up big defensive tackle Anthony McFarland (a first round pick in 1999) to Indianapolis this week in a trade for a second-round pick next year. While Philly doesn't traditionally run up the middle, Tampa's defense is already sucking wind on the season, and the loss of a big playmaker up front won't help. The Bucs play a four-man rush, drop seven Cover 2 scheme, which they'll use extensively Sunday to try to limit McNabb. This should allow Westbrook to have a big day, both on the ground and on short passes under the zone. Also look for a lot of quick slants and crossing routes to take advantage of the middle of the field against that Cover 2. Most importantly, Tampa starting left corner Brian Kelly is again listed as "doubtful" and is not expected to play (he has missed three of the last four games with turf toe) and is replaced by backup Corner Juran Bolden, who will be a frequent target for McNabb.

On defense, the Eagles get another opportunity to tee off on an inexperienced QB. Rookie Bruce Gradkowski has shown talent so far this season, but he showed typical rookie inconsistency last week, and he's going to be hit with varying schemes and pressure packagesthis week from Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. Tampa Bay loves to spread the field on offense, but against Philly's aggresisve pass rush they're not going to be able to spread as much without Gradkowski paying the price. Look for the Philly D to force the rookie QB in to game-changing mistakes. Philly should have at least +2 turnovers here, and are likely to even get a defensive score. Look for a rush-centric offense from Tampa Bay, without much success. As with last week, the Bucs are forsced to start rookies on the right side of their offensive line: Jeremy Trueblood and Devin Joseph. Fortunately for Tampa Bay they're not facing Jevon Kearse at LDE, but second-year standout Trent Cole has done an excellent job filling in for Kearse, with six sacks and 28 tackles on the season.

The Eagles are in a must-win scenario here, and I expect them to come out strong with short passes under the Tampa zone and a heavy dose - well at least heavier than normal for the pass-happy Eagles - of Brian Westbrook. Stallworth is expected to play, giving the Eagles a strong #2 receiver, especially on the short stuff where his height is an advantage. Eagles left tackle William Thomas from questionable to probable on Friday, which helps them out significantly on offense as well. 24-14 Eagles.

San Diego -5 (-103) at Kansas City
Yes, its a road favorite. And yes, the Chargers are playing at a very tough Arrowhead stadium. And I know a lot of people are starting to hammer the Chiefs here, saying this spread is too big. But I have this game going the other way, big time. The Chargers have a big revenge factor here: Kansas City eliminated the Chargers from playoff contention last year with a 20-7 victory in week 16 last season, getting absolutely pounded. However, this is a much different Kansas City unit to last year, especially so in rush defense. The Chiefs retooled defensively, becoming focused on stopping the pass. Which they’ve done well, and has resulted in a better-than-expected result for the Chiefs with Trent Green out eating applesauce. However you saw the Chiefs get killed by the Steelers last week, primarily due to 219-yards rushing from the Pittsburgh ground game. Look for LT and backup Michael Turner to gash the KC defense similarly on the ground all day.

The Chiefs got in trouble offensively last week because they fell behind early and were forced to become one-dimensional. The Chargers defense is significantly superior to Pittsburgh, and will shut down the Chiefs running game even further. The KC running game took yet another blow this week, losing their fullback Ronnie Cruz for the season, and they have no one to replace him. LJ has already struggled this year without the dominant offensive line and without standout FB Tony Richardson, and now with no fullback (or a tight end filling in) he’ll be even more limited, and against the best rush defense in the NFL to boot. Last week KC center Casey Wiegmann had trouble moving Steelers NT Casey Hampton off the ball, and San Diego NT Jamal Williams is even better against the run. LJ is going to have real trouble finding any room on Sunday.

On offense, the Chiefs have real weaknesses at the tackle positions, and the Chargers have two very strong pass rushing outside linebackers in Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips (11.5 combined sacks on the season). Look for both of these big, quick guys to have a big day putting Chiefs backup QB Damon Huard on his back. Merriman’s presence will force Tony Gonzalez to be kept in as a blocker frequently, significantly limiting the Chiefs offensive options.

Look for KC coach Herm Edwards to play a conservative game, trying to keep the game low scoring and hopefully close, but the Chargers are clicking on offense and I expect numerous big plays, both rushing and passing. Look for Herm’s conservatism to backfire early, with the Chargers jumping to an early lead and rolling from there. Lots of people think this game will be close, and low scoring. I don’t see either. 34-10 San Diego.

Pittsburgh -2.5 (-106) at Atlanta
The Steelers are clicking offensively, while Atlanta is struggling. The Falcons lost left guard Matt Lehr for four games (steroid violation) and faces a very tough rushing defense in Pittsburgh. Atlanta has three of its starting defensive linemen injured: Rod Coleman (turf toe), Patrick Kerney (hamstring) and John Abraham (groin). Last week without these three late in the game, the Falcons got abused on the ground by the Giants, and they face another strong rushing attack in Fast Willie Parker. The Steelers should have success early running against the banged-up Falcons defense, forcing safety help in defending the run, allowing Big Ben to go over the top for some big plays.

Unfortunately for the Steelers they will again be without starting ROLB Joey Porter, but the Pittsburgh defense still has plenty of talent in their linebackers to contain the Vick Experience, as long as none of them get sidelined from the herp via Ron Mexico while bringing him down. 24-17 Steelers.

Arizona -3 (-104) at Oakland
While Oakland may be playing like this is their Superbowl given that this might be the only game they can win all year, I just can't see them winning this game even at home. Arizona's defense was aggressive and quick against a much superior Chicago team last week, and if they give Oakland's QB half as much pressure he'll put up Grossman-like numbers. Dennis Green fired offensive coordinator Keith Rowen after their botched game against Chicago, and the QBs coach Mike Kruczek will now be calling plays. Look for coach Kruczek to keep the accelerator to the floor, and light up the pitiful Oakland Raiders. Oakland plays man-to-man on defense, which should benefit Leinart as there’s less to deal with at the line of scrimmage.

The Cardinals have a significant edge on defense; their line and linebackers are very speedy and will present significant problems for a struggling Raider offense. Look for several Oakland rushing plays to be broken up in the backfield, and look for Andrew Walter to continue to be battered. Walter already has 11 turnovers (seven interceptions) this season through five games, with a passer rating of 43.4. The Cardinals are currently ranked third in the NFL in takeaways with 15, and made Grossman look like an idiot last week forcing him in to six turnovers and a 10.7 QB rating. That same Cardinals defense will absolutely feast on Walter this week. Cardinals 28, Raiders 10.

Tease of the Week: Indy -2, Atlanta +9.5: 2-team, 7-point teaser.
I have the Colts with a high probability, but not by a large margin. Portis should have a big day against the Colts weak rush defense, keeping Washington in the game but never quite in reach of a win. Likewise despite Pittsburgh being a play in my system, I have a lot of value on moving the Falcons line on the other side as I expect the game to stay close. Sadly with Mansion going away, these will now be played at Pinny with higher juice.

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks for Week Seven [*] Carolina +3 (+105) : 6u to win 6.3u[*] Carolina ML (+149) : 1u to win 1.49u[*] Philly -6 (-104) : 2.08u to win 2u[*] San Diego -5 (-103) : 2.06u to win 2u[*] Pittsburgh -2.5 (-106) : 1.06u to win 1.15u[*] Arizona -3 (-104) : 1.04u to win 1u[*] TEASER: Colts -2, Falcons +9.5: 2.6u to win 2u[/list]

[MyTurn2Raise]

I love the Cardinals as well, but I just hate betting on a franchise that actually does "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"

[rjp]

I'm a huge Panthers fan, but I'm trying to figure out why a majority feel Carolina should be favored in this game!

We both need to get some back this weekend. Last week was brutal on so many levels.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to figure out why a majority feel Carolina should be favored in this game!


[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly because it seems most people think this year's Bengals team is last year's Bengals team, IMO. And they're clearly not.

Serious Cinci offensive line issues, serious problems rushing the ball and protecting the QB as a result, a Carolina team running hot with a rush defense that's been stepping up...

[rjp]

Well I know Cinci is definately not the Cinci of last year, but Carolina have themselves been hit on the offensive line. Looks like Carolina might actually have Hartwig back this week, and he's the best option at center, though it might take some time to gel.

Maybe I have reverse homer'ism. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Lori]

You have a habit of picking teams in games that I had written off as too scary. You also have a habit of picking the team that I would in those specific games.

This week's include Arizona and San Diego. I like both, but am too scared to bet either [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I really think Arizona is underrated and have actually played okay with just bad results.

I also think that Rivers is starting to really come into his own.

However, both games are under circumstances that I don't like. I don't need to list those circumstances as you've done a great job of listing them anyway. I just wonder if I'm falling into the trap you mention in the FAQ of trying too hard to win a lot of games and missing +EV spots.

Lori

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
Tease of the Week: Indy -2, Atlanta +9.5: 2-team, 7-point teaser.

[/ QUOTE ]
What was your rationale for taking 7 points instead of 6.5?

[SLP]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tease of the Week: Indy -2, Atlanta +9.5: 2-team, 7-point teaser.

[/ QUOTE ]
What was your rationale for taking 7 points instead of 6.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering this as well. Is 9 enough of a "key" number to make it worth paying the extra juice?

[Utah]

I absolutely love Carolina in this game. It is going to be a bit of a repeat what Peppers did to the Vikings. I also took the alternate line of Carolina -7.5 at +450.

[Performify]

At the time I originally picked the teaser, Indy was -9.5 and the 7-point tease was necessary.
The line shifted by the time i made the writeup and I changed the line but didn't change the teaser itself. I always use WA lines when posting / publicly tracking my picks, despite whatever I may have locked the pick in at myself - unless I post a "early edition" pick that everyone has time to grab.

Now, Indy is down to -8 so you could actually come on here with a 6-point teaser with much better juice.