AA (please don't kill me) Live; good or late fold?

Grizwold · #1 10-20-2006, 07:03 AM

I know, I know. Nobody wants to read another AA hand, but this one is not so typical for me. I was pretty sure I was behind by the flop because of strong reads, but should I continue anyway? I wonder too if anyone thinks I should have just called by the time we were heads-up on the end because of the big odds, but there were virtually no hands he could have worse than mine at that point... I was so close to folding the flop as well, I think that may have been the spot. So go ahead, bash away! Sorry, AA hand [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Reads: Villain is TAG, very solid player. I believe the best I've run in to in a live game. The worst hand I saw him raise w/ preflop in early position was KQs. He never got out of line the whole time. He sure seemed like a 2+2er. His preflop raise really turned my hand in to a fold as he is a smart thinking player, certainly aware I am another solid player at the table, and he 3-bets in early position. Villain is BB.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 calls, Hero raises, 2 calls, 3 folds, Villain 3-bets, 2 calls, Hero caps, 3 calls

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players, 24 SB)
Villain bets, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 call, 1 fold

This flop gave me a lot of trouble. I was quite sure villain had maybe a full house or even 4 of a kind. But I continued hoping he may have AK or JJ. I really could not see him 3-betting preflop in early position w/ less than that. So should I have raised this to maybe see if he does have AK or better? If villain 3-bet my raise here, should I definately fold then, or call and fold to his next bet? I think I should have folded, but this was a big pot and I wasn't so sure yet. A 3-bet would have convinced me for sure. But anyway...

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 13.5 BB)
Villain bets, Hero calls, 1 fold

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 15.5 BB)
Villain bets, Hero folds

Final pot: 16.5BB

OK, go ahead and flame away! Sorry again, AA (my only one though) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

abat · #2 10-20-2006, 07:10 AM

Grunch,

Is the pot not big enough to justify a call anyway ?

mmctrab · #3 10-20-2006, 08:24 AM

*Grunch*

I'm checking and calling all the way to show down. The odds are with two queens on the flop that he doesn't have a queen. When the second king comes down, the odds of him having a king are not great either. At these limits I've seen people three bet pre-flop with absolutely nothing. The other night I had someone three bet preflop with 87o. I wouldn't fold at the river.

Sushiglutton · #4 10-20-2006, 08:48 AM

I don't have any problems with AA hands that are as interesting as this one. U can post as many as u want for me.

Re-opening the betting from the BB is a very strong move against a solid player raising from EP. I think he holds AK, AA-JJ. I don't think he will bet JJ on the flop and especially not again on the turn.

On the flop/turn he (probably) holds AA: 1 hand, KK: 3 hands, QQ: 1 hand, AK 6 hands. Against that range a raise is a -EV play. That is if u raise he will re-raise with the hands that beats u => EVofraise = [1*6 + (-2)*(1+3)]/10 = -0.2. Raising to gain information is a bad move in a pot this big.

So I like ur call on the flop and turn. On the river he can have AA: (1), KK (1), QQ (1), AK (4). If he is equally likely to bet all three than u have a call. I think I would make a crying call here. Not good for the health to fold AA in 17bb pots.

DrModern · #5 10-20-2006, 09:04 AM

Sushi,

You are ahead of 6 combos, chopping with 1, and behind 4. I don't see how being ahead of the majority of the combinations can possibly yeild a calculations where raising is -EV.

And what's more, your EV calculation fails to account for the times that you are behind and smack another ace.

FWIW, sine this is live play, he can also hold JJ or TT, or sometimes KQ or sometimes total crap.

That said, a call-call-call line is not a bad move here. You aren't folding anyone, and it's unlikely you have a big equity edge.

Sushiglutton · #6 10-20-2006, 09:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Sushi,

You are ahead of 6 combos, chopping with 1, and behind 4. I don't see how being ahead of the majority of the combinations can possibly yeild a calculations where raising is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is because we will gain 1 bet if ahead and lose 2 if behind. And since the ratio 6/4 = 1.5 < 2/1 = 2, we are losing when we raise.

[ QUOTE ]

And what's more, your EV calculation fails to account for the times that you are behind and smack another ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but it also doesn't account for when we are ahead against AK and he hit another K. I thought these two possibilities almost canceled.

TheCardGeek · #7 10-20-2006, 09:39 AM

Wow, very interesting hand.

I think I'd make the crying call on the river - but I don't fault your play.

DakotaKid · #8 10-20-2006, 11:16 AM

You seem pretty confident in your reads of this guy. With that, I see AA-JJ and AK pf, but if he sees you as just as strong I'm not sure he'd lead the flop with JJ since you capped pf. So if we discount JJ altogether you can raise the flop here being ahead of AK 6 times and behind KK or QQ 4 times and splitting with AA. If we include JJ we're ahead 12 times and behind 4.

However, part of this hinges on whether you think he'd 3-bet this flop with AK, since our thinking has you way behind to a flop 3-bet. If he can 3-bet AK here you'd be faced with tougher decisions and just calling down is probably in order.

Also, if you add any chance that he'd 3-bet AQ or KQ preflop you are well behind his range here I think. But it's the perfect spot to spike an ace on the river and do the happy dance.

As played I think I'd call the river and punch him in the face when he showed 44.

Grizwold · #9 10-20-2006, 04:58 PM

I'm glad people found this hand interesting and not a typical AA post. Indeed my reads were very strong on this guy. He could 3-bet JJ in early position, but when I capped, there is no way he would lead the flop with JJ. I think there is virtually no chance he was running a bluff, because he would not do so with a raised pot preflop. I could never see this guy betting w/ a low pocket pair or something. By the flop, I felt my only chance was if he was holding AK, which is why I folded the river. Since there were more combinations of AK than KK or QQ, and with AA as a push, I feel a little better about continuing on the flop and turn, although I was omfgwtfaments so close to folding the flop. By the river he would hold AK 3 ways, AQ 3 ways, KQ 3 ways, KK 1 way, QQ 1 way, and AA 1 way. So 11 hands beat me and 1 hand chops it. I was gettin about 16:1, but I felt more like I was getting 8:1, hoping my only chance was to chop and virtually certain I was beat the whole way... almost break even w/ the range I put him on here. Call anyway to save my sanity?

DrModern · #10 10-20-2006, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call anyway to save my sanity?

[/ QUOTE ]

What was the limit of your live game? If it were anything like the live $2/$4 game I played last weekend I'd call, but at a somewhat more reasonable game (or given your read on villain), I think you can safely fold.

Pat yourself on the back for making a good laydown and try to a avoid tilting, I guess.