MyTurn's week 8 CFB (10/19-10/21)

MyTurn2Raise · #1 10-19-2006, 04:39 PM

sorry, I've been on a much need vacation. I'm disappointed with the 0.3 units to the plus I've amassed this season, but I traditionally do better later in the year. I'm hoping that continues or my dreams of being a tout will die.

52-46 NCAAF
4-3 POTW
3-4 Illini Pics
all ytd

MyTurn2Raise · #2 10-19-2006, 04:53 PM

Thursday pick
Virginia -6.5 v North Carolina

Sagarin predictor has Virginia as 8.29 point favorites.
Dunkel has Virginia over 7.6 points better.
Both of those are without the home field advantage factored

Game is at Virginia

UNC is bad across the board:
80th rush offense
113th pass efficiency
99th in scoring offense (17.5 ppg)
113th in rush defense
93rd pass efficiency defense
115th in scoring defense

While the Tarheels have played a very tough schedule thus far, the 45-42 home victory verse Furman and 37-20 loss to South Florida stick out. So, even against below average opponents, UNC has sucked.

OK, so Virginia sucks, too. Their offense is also around #100 in the country playing an easier schedule. However, the Cavaliers defense is average and the special teams are slightly above average. That will be enough.

I expect the bad Cavaliers offense to succeed against the bad Carolina defense. The Virginia offense has really got their personnel straight and settled in the last few weeks. They got 37 verse Duke, 21 verse East Carolina, and 26 verse Maryland. I expect them to look pretty decent against a poor Carolina team at home.

On the other side, Carolina will again look awful. They just have no one. The only caveat is they did have some success verse a pretty good South Florida team.

BobJoeJim · #3 10-19-2006, 04:54 PM

Nice, someone does agree with me about Virginia in this game!

MyTurn2Raise · #4 10-19-2006, 05:28 PM

POTW: Wisconsin -6 @ Purdue

are you kidding me? I know this is on the road, but this line is off by alot. The Badgers are a covering machine and I cannot believe I haven't been riding them big...a few $10 bets the last few weeks instead of really believing.

The matchups are perfect for the Badgers.

Purdue offense v Badger defense
The Boilers are pass, pass, pass again and they've been doing it well as they are 4th in yards passing (37 in efficiency) and aaveraging 33 points per game. While that looks good for the Boilers, the reality is that the majority of these stats were racked up against Ball St, Miami(OH), Indiana St, and Northwestern. The Boilers only scored 27 verse Minny, 21 at South Bend, and 17 in Iowa city. The Badgers defense is a pass stopping machine. They are #2 in the country on pass efficiency defense (though their schedule sort of sucks, too). The good news is Wisconsin has been so strong with pass efficiency defense without gettign many sacks. The Boilers don't allow sacks. This means is business as usual for the Badgers whose coverage will hold down a Purdue receiving corps that's decent, but not lights out.

Wisconsin offense v Boiler defense
For those living under a rock, the Boiler defense sucks absolute balls: 90th verse the rush, 98th pass efficiency, 101 ppg. The Badgers bring their bruising, punishing running attack verse the smaller Boilers squad that tries to get by on speed over size. This isn't good. Remember the Arkansas-Auburn game from a few weeks ago; this will be much worse. The Badgers are top20 in running and average over 190 ypg on the ground. They will pound out first down after first down. The Badgers will control the clock and wear out the undersized Boiler D. This looks brutal. The surest way to overcome playing on the road is to take their fans out of the game by pounding out first down after first down. It's deflating.

Special teams
Edge to the Badgers. Boilers FG kicker sucks, net punting is below average, punt returns suck, kickoffs are average.
Badgers kickoff returns suck, but their punting is good, and FG is adequete.

Last year, the Badgers won 31-13 after outscoring the Boilers 21-0 down the stretch.

Dunkel index has the Badgers 17.5 points higher and the Sagarin predictor has the Badgers 17.5 points higher.
WOW!!!!!!!!!

In addition, unlike some other POTWs, I don't see the Badgers putting up 4+ turnovers unless there is a really freak occurance.

BobJoeJim · #5 10-19-2006, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
are you kidding me? I know this is on the road, but this line is off by alot. The Badgers are a covering machine and I cannot believe I haven't been riding them big...a few $10 bets the last few weeks instead of really believing.

The matchups are perfect for the Badgers.

Purdue offense v Badger defense
The Boilers are pass, pass, pass again and they've been doing it well as they are 4th in yards passing (37 in efficiency) and aaveraging 33 points per game. While that looks good for the Boilers, the reality is that the majority of these stats were racked up against Ball St, Miami(OH), Indiana St, and Northwestern. The Boilers only scored 27 verse Minny, 21 at South Bend, and 17 in Iowa city. The Badgers defense is a pass stopping machine. They are #2 in the country on pass efficiency defense (though their schedule sort of sucks, too). The good news is Wisconsin has been so strong with pass efficiency defense without gettign many sacks. The Boilers don't allow sacks. This means is business as usual for the Badgers whose coverage will hold down a Purdue receiving corps that's decent, but not lights out.

Wisconsin offense v Boiler defense
For those living under a rock, the Boiler defense sucks absolute balls: 90th verse the rush, 98th pass efficiency, 101 ppg. The Badgers bring their bruising, punishing running attack verse the smaller Boilers squad that tries to get by on speed over size. This isn't good. Remember the Arkansas-Auburn game from a few weeks ago; this will be much worse. The Badgers are top20 in running and average over 190 ypg on the ground. They will pound out first down after first down. The Badgers will control the clock and wear out the undersized Boiler D. This looks brutal. The surest way to overcome playing on the road is to take their fans out of the game by pounding out first down after first down. It's deflating.

Special teams
Edge to the Badgers. Boilers FG kicker sucks, net punting is below average, punt returns suck, kickoffs are average.
Badgers kickoff returns suck, but their punting is good, and FG is adequete.

Last year, the Badgers won 31-13 after outscoring the Boilers 21-0 down the stretch.

Dunkel index has the Badgers 17.5 points higher and the Sagarin predictor has the Badgers 17.5 points higher.
WOW!!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
Lol, I almost started a picks thread of my own to fill in the void of you not having one. Clearly that would have been redundant, since you're just posting my picks for me now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Keep it up, and let's both clean up this week!

MyTurn2Raise · #6 10-19-2006, 05:54 PM

Oregon St -2.5 @ Arizona
good to -4.5
Oregon St/Arizona U38
good to 37.5

Another game where one team's strength is another team's weakness. Arizona's Defense is above average (44th in total yards and 50th in points per game), but quite susceptible to the pass (86th in pass efficiency defense). The Beavers look to establish the past first and foremost. They are 24th in passing yards and 45th in passing efficiency. The run game is not very good for the Beavers (73rd in the nation) and Arizona's rush defense is stout (28th playing a good schedule). The Beavers will establish the pass and have enough success to get around 20.

The Arizona offense is bloody awful. Every week, it just continues.

Here is the wildcats thus far:
Sat, Sep 2 Brigham Young W 16-13 --
Sat, Sep 9 at (8) LSU L 3-45 Audio
Sat, Sep 16 Stephen F. Austin W 28-10 Audio
Sat, Sep 23 (3) USC L 3-20 Audio
Sat, Sep 30 Washington L 10-21 Audio
Sat, Oct 7 at UCLA L 7-27 Audio
Sat, Oct 14 at Stanford W 20-7 Audio

Per the total, only one Arizona game this year is over 34 points. The Beavers defense has good numbers, but their schedule hasn't been too tough. What is really exciting about the Beavers is they have held bad and mediocre offenses down. The Wildcats are the epitome of a bad offense.

Sagarin predictore has Oregon State as nearly 11 points better and Dunkel has the Beavers about 9.4 points better. Even playing on the road, the Beavers look ready, especially so after breaking through for a good 10-point road win at Washington last week.

BobJoeJim · #7 10-19-2006, 06:00 PM

You're now 3/3 on posting my picks... this is getting creepy. Also on the Arizona game don't forget that their quarterback will probably be Kris Heavner, who once transferred AWAY from UA to play football at a smaller school, then transferred back for baseball, then basically came out for the football team this year on a whim.

So which of my bets are you posting next? Texas Tech?

MyTurn2Raise · #8 10-19-2006, 07:32 PM

UCLA +13.5 @ Notre Dame
good to +10.5

Sagarin predictor has UCLA 0.04 points better than Notre Dame [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Dunkel has ND 3.7 points better. Even with home field, the power rankings clearly point to UCLA as being the value pick.

OK, UCLA hasn't beaten a quality team yet and ND is coming off a bye week which favorst the Irish more. In addition, the Bruins play a back-up qb now who has trouble speaking after being punched in the throat last week. If they find a way to communicate, I don't think there is much of a drop off for the Bruins. The Bruins defense is solid verse both the run and pass, but were torched by Oregon. Notre Dame is no Oregon on offense. Notre Dame is still only 89th rushing. UCLA can stop the ND run with only 7 in the box, which will allow them to matchup better v Quinn and co.

Notre Dame's defense is below average verse both the run and pass. UCLA is just below average in both categories.

Special teams should balance out. Both have some weaknesses and strengths which should keep field position balanced out.

BobJoeJim · #9 10-19-2006, 07:34 PM

WTF??? 4/4!!!

I got UCLA +14 +106 though. Of all my bets this week, this is the one I most dislike. My computer said it was ND 2.5 better, so I went with it. Obviously it helps me feel better about it to see that you're on it too.

MyTurn2Raise · #10 10-19-2006, 07:52 PM

West Virginia -22 @ UCONN

Sagarin predictor has W VA 22 points better. Dunkel has the Mountaineers 30 points ahead. Both don't include the home field.

2 things stand out here. First, the Mountaineers strength (rushing attack) is the UCONN weakness (rushing defense). The Huskies are #105 verse the run, allowing over 177 ypg. West Virginia is #1 running, averaging over 328 yards per game...uh oh! Woodshed city!

Second, W VA gets a national spotlight after being snubbed in the first BCS ratings. This is a huge chance for a statement verse an inferior opponent.

Last year, WV beat UCONN 45-13 on 228 yards rushing and 144 passing verse 129 total yards for UCONN.