Pride: Real Deal 10/21

swope · #1 10-18-2006, 11:13 PM

Making this kinda quick because this is an absolutely terrible card to bet on and I dont want to spend much energy waxing poetic on why, suffice it to say that there is no value in betting on the overdogs because of the lines and because of the total changes in rules they have to work under, and there is no value betting on the underdogs because almost all of them are clearly doomed.

That said..:

Sat 10/21 Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman
08:00 PM 1 Fedor Emelianenko -1001
2 Mark Coleman +851

Whatever. Feel free to put money on Coleman if youre the religious type and feel like God owes you one..

Sat 10/21 Mauricio Rua vs Kevin Randleman
07:30 PM 3 Mauricio Rua -301
4 Kevin Randleman +271

Perhaps the only bettable fight on this card. Rua is lightyears ahead of Randleman standing and on the ground, but these are basically UFC rules, which Shogun has never fought under before. Im really uncomfortable putting money on him under these circumstances, but its probably the safest play you can make.

Sat 10/21 Dan Henderson vs Vitor Belfort
07:00 PM 5 Dan Henderson -206
6 Vitor Belfort +186

Vitor actually stands a chance here. Hes got some wind under his wings, Hendo looked like ass against Misaki, who knows? Hard to pull the trigger on Vitor without better odds tho. Id put some cash on him at +250 or better maybe..

Sat 10/21 Josh Barnett vs Pawel Nastula
06:30 PM 7 Josh Barnett -801
8 Pawel Nastula +721

Great, I can risk 801$ to make 100$ against someone more than capable of RNC'ing Josh if he makes even the slightest error. Thanks, DSE.

Sat 10/21 Joey Villasenor vs Robbie Lawler
06:30 PM 9 Joey Villasenor -131
10 Robbie Lawler +121

Lawler looked pretty meh against Mayhem in his last fight.. He just kinda stood there while Mayhem threw the sloppiest leg kicks ever seen in an MMA fight to date. Money on Joey is probably safe.

Sat 10/21 Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima
06:30 PM 11 Phil Baroni -401
12 Yosuke Nishijima +361

Baroni will probably win, but Im willing to invest a few bucks in Nishijima because hes actually the better striker of the two, and because Baroni believes his own publicist and might try to stand with him.

Sat 10/21 Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Travis Galbraith
06:00 PM 13 Kazuhiro Nakamura -1001
14 Travis Galbraith +851

Hahaha whatever. Travis isnt even in Nak's weight class.

This is a truly awful card, both to bet on and probably to watch.

Sorry to be so negative. UFC 65 is going to make up for it and them some, however.

swope · #2 10-19-2006, 05:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Lawler looked pretty meh against Mayhem in his last fight.. He just kinda stood there while Mayhem threw the sloppiest leg kicks ever seen in an MMA fight to date. Money on Joey is probably safe.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive read some compelling arguments that lawler is a good value against joey, so grain of salt that particular suggestion.

JasonK · #3 10-19-2006, 02:40 PM

I don't see how Baroni can win a stand up fight against Nishijima. It took Hunt like 18 minutes to KO him and the guy was fighting with his hands down most of the time. He can take a punch pretty well.

swope · #4 10-20-2006, 02:09 AM

Baroni cant win standing but he *can* wrestle. The question is; how stupid is he?

Money on Nishi is money on Baroni [censored] up, and its not like hes the sharpest dude around..

Also, I expect a *lot* of post-fight DQ's for steroids on this card.

JasonK · #5 10-20-2006, 02:14 AM

From what I've seen Baroni is pretty damn stupid and prefers to stand up and KO people. I don't think his conditioning is that good either. I almost never bet on underdogs but I'm dropping a few units on Nish . Probably the only fight I'm betting here.

Hoya · #6 10-21-2006, 11:35 AM

Well, thanks to RCN cable, it looks like I can't order this. They are showing boxing instead.

Performify · #7 10-21-2006, 02:12 PM

Quick writeup on the Pride 32: Real Deal fights tonight. Lots of UFC fans who are first timers to a Pride PPV, so I'm going to write up each fight even though a lot don't warrant any action. Everything current lines from Pinnacle at the time of this post

Fedor Emelianenko vs Mark Coleman

Fedor Emelianenko -859

Mark Coleman +779

If you're completely new to Pride, Fedor is the first name you should learn and love. Fedor is the Pride heavyweight champion, is undefeated in Pride and has a 23-1 MMA record, his only loss being a freak cut early in the first round of a 2000 event outside of Pride. Fedor is an absolute monster, and one of the best fighters anywhere in the world. He's a Russian Sambo champion (a Russian military martial art that is a cross between judo and jiu-jitsu) who has extremely heavy hands, and is completely versed on the ground and on his feet.

Mark Coleman was first seen at UFC 10 in 1996, winning that tournament and had a 6-0 record in the UFC until he was beaten by Maurice Smith at UFC 14 in 1997. Coleman then lost two more UFC fights, and jumped to Pride. He currently holds a 15-7 MMA record. Coleman turns 43 years old in December. Coleman left Pride in 2001, and then returned in 2003. He's fought roughly once a year since returning: defeated Don Frye in 2003 at Pride 26, then was beaten by Fedor (first round armbar) in 2004, was defeated by Mirko Filipovic in 2005 at Pride 29, then won a bout in Bushido over an OK opponent in late 2005 and then in early 2006, Coleman defeated the very impressive Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in what was kind of a fluke win: Rua broke his arm being taken down by Coleman early in the first round, and Coleman was awarded the victory.

Yes, Coleman has a chance in this fight, this is no where near the "lock" that Ortiz/Liddell was, but that said: Fedor wins this fight 95% of the time, in my opinion, which makes this line +EV and worth a small bet. I won't be loading up on Fedor, but I will make a bet here "for value", to win one unit.

Mauricio Rua vs Kevin Randleman

Mauricio Rua -281

Kevin Randleman +261

This is the best value on the card, in my opinion. Shogun Rua is a member of the vaunted Brazilian Chute Boxe organization, a teammate of Wanderlei Silva among others. Rua has a 13-2 MMA record, his only losses that broken arm early to Coleman, and a loss back in 2003 to Renato "Babalu" Sobral. Randleman is a former national champion wrestler from The Ohio State University, holds a 16-11 MMA record. Randleman was a standout wrestler but is 1-4 in his last five fights, with his only win over a mediocre 8-8 fighter, and 2-6 since 2003. Randleman, who just turned 35, will probably make this fight a little dangerous for Shogun Rua, but Rua is in a completely different class now. Rua to win 2 units.

Dan Henderson vs Vitor Belfort

Dan Henderson -186

Vitor Belfort +176

This is the fight I'm most interested in on the card. Dan "Hollywood" Henderson fought in the UFC back at UFC 17 in 1998 and after two wins in the UFC made the jump to Pride, where he has been very dominant. Henderson holds the Pride Middleweight (183-pound) belt. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort, a disciple of the infamous Gracie clan, has long been one of my favorite fighters. He made his major MMA debut at UFC 12 in 1997, winning that tournament with two ferocious first-round knockouts. Vitor ran off to a 10-2 MMA record through 2001, then lost to Chuck Liddell at UFC 37.5 in 2002, returned to beat Marvin Eastman at UFC 43, then defeated Randy Couture at UFC 46 by cutting Randy's eye with a punch, to take Randy's belt. In the end of 2004 Vitor rematched Couture and lost decisively, lost a split decision to Tito Ortiz at UFC 51 in early 2005, and then left the UFC. Since leaving, Vitor is 1-1 in Pride and 1-1 in other MMA organizations.

Vitor has tremendous hand speed, is a tremendous striker with ground skills as well. And at six months shy of his thirtieth birthday, still has tremendous potential. A win here puts Vitor back on the map and will set up some very good future opportunities. Henderson is coming off his first loss at the hands of Kazuo Misaki in the quarter-finals of the BUSHIDO Welterweight tournament. I'm going with Vitor here for a small bet, looking for an upset.

Josh Barnett vs Pawel Nastula

Josh Barnett -751

Pawel Nastula +681

Very one-sided line here for a reason. Barnett is an up-and-coming heavyweight from the US, with a 19-4 MMA record. Pawel Nastula is a highly decorated Polish judo fighter who captured Olympic gold at the '96 games in Atlanta. Nastula is being fed to Barnett here: while Nastula will always have a longshot chance of grabbing a submission, Barnett should win this one early, in dominating fashion. Worth a small bet, but this is a very small edge, so corresponding small bet.

Joey Villasenor vs Robbie Lawler

Joey Villasenor -126

Robbie Lawler +116

By far the closest fight on the card. Villasenor has one fight in Pride, a loss, but holds a 22-4 MMA record, mostly in King of the Cage. This is Robbie Lawler's Pride debut. Lawler is a Miletech fighter who fought in the UFC from 2002 (UFC 37) to 2004 (UFC 50) and has a 11-4 MMA record. His conditioning has been suspect recently, getting derailed by a late-fight submission against Jason Miller in which he appeared to gas in the third round big time. I like Lawler, but I think this fight is very close, too close to warrant a bet unless you're looking for action across the board.

Phil Baroni vs Yosuke Nishijima

Phil Baroni -381

Yosuke Nishijima +351

Two straight-up strikers. Baroni isn't the brightest of fighters, frequently making mistakes in fights, for example wanting to stand and trade with other good strikers instead of taking the fight to the ground where his wrestling skills give him an edge. I'd stay well away from this fight: if Baroni shows good judgement he can win this easy by taking the fight to the ground. However if Baroni decides to stand and trade with the Japanese boxer, there's always a possible KO either way. Baroni should win but its too risky to bet in my opinion.

Kazuhiro Nakamura vs Travis Galbraith

Kazuhiro Nakamura -901

Travis Galbraith +811

Nakamura is a judo fighter with a 10-5 MMA record, most notable for beating Kevin Randleman by UD in 2005 and then getting KO'd by Wanderlei Silva in his very next match. Galbraith is a Canadian practicioner of jiu-jitsu, with a 10-3 MMA record. Galbraith really isn't on the same level of competitor as Nakamura, but I wouldn't bet this fight, the line is pretty well set.

Recommended plays, in order of expected value:
<list>
<LI>Mauricio Rua -281: 5.62u to win 2u
<LI>Fedor Emelianenko -859: 8.59u to win 1u
<LI>Josh Barnett -751: 1.88u to win .25u
<LI>Vitor Belfort +176: .28u to win .5u
</list>

swope · #8 10-21-2006, 02:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Quick writeup on the Pride 32: Real Deal fights tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent writeup, many thanks for the insight as always.

ive got 5 units on shogun for +1.75 units, thats the only bet i made tonight.

Alfuh · #9 10-21-2006, 02:26 PM

I was looking for this thread. Don't know how I missed it.

I put down on Rua for obvious reasons (he is at -280 on pinnaclesports right now)

Henderson - I don't see Vitor being able to finish Henderson early (2 sub wins in his career and Henderson is a tough guy with a good chin), and I don't see his gas tank holding up.

Lawler - Small bet, someone talked me into it. If Joey looks to bang Robbie will gladly oblige.

Coleman - Real small bet, Fedor may get struck by lighting, you never know

Tuds75 · #10 10-21-2006, 03:04 PM

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Henderson - I don't see Vitor being able to finish Henderson early (2 sub wins in his career and Henderson is a tough guy with a good chin), and I don't see his gas tank holding up.

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Good bit of info.

When was Vitor ever really looked for a sub to end a fight. Vitor is well versed in gracie BJJ, but his natural tendancy is to fight with his fist. And like it was mentioned Hendo has an awesome chin. He has fought Heavyweights and not been KO. I mean he fought Wand Silva at 205 and it went to a decision and I don't think the current Vitor is the stiker Wandy is. Also Hendo has only tapped twice in his career, once to each Nogueira brother and they are some of the top submission fighters in MMA.

So basically Hendo has fought bigger guys then Vitor and never got KOed, Hendo has fough bigger punchers/strikers then Vitor and still went the distance and the Hendo was only submitted against 2 of the top submission guys in mma, so Vitor is not going to sub Hendo.

Vitor's last 2 wins have come against one opponet with a 28-20 record and another with a 10-7 record, not really the competition Hendo has been facing for the last few years.

So that leaves only a decision victory for Vitor and since it looks like he has problems gassing in his last few fights were he was really tested, I am not sure he can get this victory if he only fights 1/2 the fight and holds on the rest of it.

Yes Henderson hasn't looked like a world beater in his last few fights, but at least he has been fighting real world class fighters, and winning those fights.

I have now been swayed to think that Hendo is the best bet on this card. I even think money is going to come in on Vitor as a dog, I am hoping Hendo even gets close to -170 range which would be niice. My feeling is that there is a 70% chance its a UD or SD decision for Hendo and the other 30% of the time Hendo G'n'Ps Vitor into a stoppage.

Don't foget Couture is a training partner of Hendo and Couture beat Vitor up for 4 rounds. I see Randy helping Hendo use the gameplan he did to beat Vitor a similar way.

Tuds