all-in pre-flop KK vs. QQ deal

[rageotones]

1/2/5 rock hero (200) is OTB with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
villain (180) raises to 11 in LP
villain 2 (175) raises to 22 in CO
hero raises to 60 OTB
villain thinks for a minute and goes all-in for about 180
villain 2 folds
hero calls
villain shows QQ and hero shows KK
before the flop, hero tells villain that he can have 40 and give the rest of the pot to the hero. villain accepts offer, and hero takes pot uncontested.

i'm trying to figure out if i made a good deal or not.

[Zag]

It's easy enough to calculate. Just go to twodimes.net

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=171416

You had 82% pot equity, villain had 18%

Overall pot was $380. 18% of $380 is $68.40. You made a good deal.

By the way, another way to reduce the variance, one that is always (nearly) fair, is to split the pot into two or three roughly equal sub-pots. (It doesn't matter if they are exactly equal.) Then deal out a different board for each sub-pot, awarding each one separately. This actually turns out to be a slight advantage for the hand that is ahead, unless you gather up the cards and reshuffle for each separate board you deal out. But the difference compared to true odds is slight.

[poker1O1]

pot is 382ish, KK vs. QQ w/ 1 suit in common, QQ wins 18% of the time, or $68, so yes, paying $40 was a good deal

[Big_Jim]

Insurance is sweet, when you set the price.

Reminds me of the High Stakes Poker episode where Hellmuth gets Insurance from Greenstein.

All the other players at the table are like "LOL, Hellmuth, you tool, you're no gambler!" And Greenstein is like "STFU NOOBS!"

I've never seen somebody take the raw end of an insurance deal when they had the worst hand.

[rageotones]

in villain's defense, it was pretty quick and in the moment. he was pretty solid player, and i'm pretty sure he was just happy to get some money out of the deal. turns out that both the Q's were dead, and he was all but drawing dead anyway.

thanks for the comments.

[Jive Dadson]

[ QUOTE ]

By the way, another way to reduce the variance, one that is always (nearly) fair, is to split the pot into two or three roughly equal sub-pots. (It doesn't matter if they are exactly equal.) Then deal out a different board for each sub-pot, awarding each one separately. This actually turns out to be a slight advantage for the hand that is ahead, unless you gather up the cards and reshuffle for each separate board you deal out. But the difference compared to true odds is slight.



[/ QUOTE ]

That's not so. Whether you shuffle the cards back in or not, the EV (expected value, or "true odds" as you call it) is unaffected. You just have to decide before hand which way you are going to do it. Not shuffling the cards back in reduces the expected variance more than shuffling back in does, so no one ever shuffles them back in.

Trust me. I am a master of mathematics. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[dtan05]

[ QUOTE ]
Insurance is sweet, when you set the price.

Reminds me of the High Stakes Poker episode where Hellmuth gets Insurance from Greenstein.

All the other players at the table are like "LOL, Hellmuth, you tool, you're no gambler!" And Greenstein is like "STFU NOOBS!"

I've never seen somebody take the raw end of an insurance deal when they had the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

where can i watch this "high stakes poker"

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
where can i watch this "high stakes poker"

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.gsn.com/specific_page_ele...hp?link_id=S82

[Jive Dadson]

Post deleted by Jive Dadson

[Jive Dadson]

Post deleted by Jive Dadson