ULL-FAU

[lakerman8]

any thoughts on this one tonight? i'm seeing ULL -8.5 most places. FAU sucks but they won their one home game, anyone see a play here or is this just prime territory for action junkies?

[pirateboy]

I'm not playing it because it's a Sun Belt game, and my few SB bets have been so wrong.

However, if I were to bet this, and I still might, I'd bet ULL. ULL has a good run game and FAU's run defense is awful (against big schools, though). While ULL has a terrible pass D, FAU's pass O is only average. I see ULL running the ball down the Owls' throats all night.

[BobJoeJim]

BAH, I've been having issues with the site, and don't seem able to post. If you're reading this it means I finally got it through...

Only game of the day (5-2 YTD)

First off, let me express my displeasure at these two teams for forcing me to analyze them by playing a Wednesday game, lousy Sun Belt [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Meh, I'm a degenerate, I can't help but stick with this OGotD thing :P

Okay, UL Lafayette started the year losing 45-3 @ Clemson, and 51-7 @ Texas A&M, while FAU started off with 54-6 @ Clemson, 45-0 @ Kansas State, 48-8 @ Oklahoma State, and 45-6 @ South Carolina. While ULL's power conference losses are completely irrelevant to analyzing this Sun Belt matchup, FAU's losses to KSU and OK State look a little more questionable. More on that later.

Now, neither of these two teams has lost since those blowouts. ULL blew out a winless 1-AA team (48-7 over NC A&T), won convincingly (33-14) over Eastern Michigan (who, as a caveat, is winless, and was also beat "convincingly" by Ball State), then pulled off a tremendous comeback two weeks ago to steal a win @ Houston, and is coming off a bye week.

The ULL offense is pretty strongly run oriented, and averaged over 6 yards a carry against Houston. Sophomore RB Tyrell Fenroy is averaging 5.7 ypc, (he was at 5.9 last year), and has gone over 100 in his last three games, ripping off 110 on 15 carries against EMU, helping the Ragin' Cajuns to lead 33-0 early in the fourth, before EMU finally got some garbage scores. The ULL passing game is weak (outside of EMU who they torched), but if Fenroy is going off it won't matter. Also in their favor is a propensity to avoid turnovers, with only 5 this year (one in their last three games). Defensively, they were torched by Kevin Kolb, but held Houston to 1.7 ypc on the ground. There's no real sign in the box scores of anything particularly special about the ULL defense to me, but it looks passable.

Meanwhile FAU, since their 4 blowouts, has won @UL Monroe 21-19, and then took their share of the 1-AA pie with a 32-7 win over S. Utah, however they did allow over 5 yards per carry in that otherwise un-notable game. The matchup with now 1-5 UL Monroe was a close, back and forth game, in which two UL Monroe turnover compared to clean play on FAU's end looks, from the box score, like the biggest difference (although you could probably just point to the failed 2 pt conversion with 1:57 left if you wanted). This season FAU averages 2.8 yards per carry, and has only completed 51% of their passes, with 7 picks and 5 TDs. Defensively they have failed to impress either, particularly against the run. Kansas State ripped off 221 yards against them (7.4 per carry), while OK State put up 246 (5.7) on the ground.

Now, I hate to play the "a beat b beat c" chain game, but there's a few notable things here. ULL beat Houston, who beat Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State. Oklahoma State and Kansas State BOTH destroyed FAU. Now I'm not sure if this means anything, since I feel "who beat who" chains tend to be just stupid, but in this case I can't find anything to convince me that any of the games are necessarily abberations. I don't actually think UL Lafayette is better than Houston, but I think they are close enough that that game might not have been a COMPLETE fluke. If there's any chance that ULL might be anywhere NEAR Houston's caliber, even just in a couple aspects of the game, then they become an easy bet, since FAU is most definitely not. ULL has an impressive young runnning back, FAU has suspect run defense. ULL doesn't turn the ball over as often as FAU does. ULL has shown a few flashes of at least decent defense, while FAU hasn't. FAU has minimal signs of life on offense. ULL has gotten big plays at key times (see, Houston), and FAU hasn't. I do have some concerns about what will happen when FAU has the ball, since I certainly won't claim I saw anything in the box scores to make ULL's defense look "good," but that's the only thing that keeps me from predicting a complete blowout here.

I see ULL winning this by 14 or so. Because of my trepidation about the Ragin' Cajuns on defense, I have no lean on the total, but if FAU starts scoring more, I think ULL will keep up the pace. Could be 35-24, could be 27-10, but I feel good about getting a double digit win here 55% of the time or so. UL Lafayette -8.5 -107 (Mansion Exchange)

Pinny just moved it to -8.5 -112 so you might want to get in quick if your planning to follow.

[ksufan19]

good analysis as always, i'm with you on ULL -8.5. FAU is 0-7 ATS at home in their last 7 home games? ULL should easily move the ball on this awful owls def.

[BobJoeJim]

Looks like it's -9 now at most places, but I still like the Ragin' Cajuns, plus I love saying "Ragin' Cajuns" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[livin_a_lie]

ULL over 27.5 -128

There last 3 were against bad opponents and they scored 48,33,31. FAU is just as bad the others, I dont think ULL will have much trouble scoring 4 TDs.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
ULL over 27.5 -128

There last 3 were against bad opponents and they scored 48,33,31. FAU is just as bad the others, I dont think ULL will have much trouble scoring 4 TDs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree the over is probably a good bet here, but that juice isn't great. I'm also not quite sure if it's just a reflection of the spread being wrong or not, and so I don't know whether there is more value in ULL laying points or ULL over. Given that I'm not sure, I'll stick with just the spread bet, but if anyone has any input on choosing between one or the other of these bets, either in this situation or just in general, I'd be interested in hearing the feedback.

[livin_a_lie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ULL over 27.5 -128

There last 3 were against bad opponents and they scored 48,33,31. FAU is just as bad the others, I dont think ULL will have much trouble scoring 4 TDs.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree the over is probably a good bet here, but that juice isn't great. I'm also not quite sure if it's just a reflection of the spread being wrong or not, and so I don't know whether there is more value in ULL laying points or ULL over. Given that I'm not sure, I'll stick with just the spread bet, but if anyone has any input on choosing between one or the other of these bets, either in this situation or just in general, I'd be interested in hearing the feedback.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really know about these situations in general, but the one common factor I kept coming up with while looking at this game is that ULL is gonna score some points. I really dont know alot about the sunbelt and the fact that FAU is 0-5 on the road and 1-0 at home makes me hesitant to lay 9 points.

Home or away, FAU's D is bad. As far as their offense, I predict they'll score between 6 and 38 points [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[sfwusc]

Wow on the first half.

3-0 and it should be 0-0.

I grabbed the u21 2nd half for 2 units, bc that line was just stupid.

-SFWUSC

I have ULL -10 for the game, so that isnt so hot. 1 unit

[livin_a_lie]

[ QUOTE ]
I grabbed the u21 2nd half for 2 units

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, boy was I wrong [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]