Falcons v. Pittsburgh: OH MY GOD! (YTD 1-1-1 -.1 units)

YoureToast · #1 10-17-2006, 08:09 PM

Take Atlanta here for 4 units at +2.5 +101 at Pinny.

This is a dream come true, complete overreaction to two aberrations that occurred on Sunday. The Falcons were embarrassed in the 2nd half against a strong NY Giants team. Both offensively and defensively, they were manhandled. Whats not noticed is that the Falcons' defense played the 2nd half shorthanded severely and simply ran out of gas. This doesn't occur very often, but the Falcons' offensive performance (or lack thereof) in the 2nd half, as well as the fact that they socred a touchdown on their first play in the 2nd half, never allowed their defense to get off the field. This will not happen again this weekend. The Falcons will be fired up to redeem themselves and I expect that they will.

Pittsburgh's dismantling of the Chiefs was also an aberration.

Pittsburgh may be the slightly better team here, but not to the point of being favored by 2.5 on the road.

I'm jumping on the above Pinny line early and may go more if the line moves to 3.

FWIW, Matt Lehr's suspension is irrelevant and may be a blessing. He is their worst offensive lineman and the guy most responsible for the sieve that was their offense line on Sunday.

Central Limit · #2 10-17-2006, 08:12 PM

2.5 means I have to tease it...

YoureToast · #3 10-17-2006, 08:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2.5 means I have to tease it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, a good plan. Let me know who you are teasing with.

JJguy · #4 10-17-2006, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2.5 means I have to tease it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, a good plan. Let me know who you are teasing with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 7 point teased it with Indy -9.5. good? bad?

silentbob · #5 10-17-2006, 08:54 PM

I'm teasing Atlanta and Indianapolis too.

The Colts are -9 at many books, so you could even do a 6.5 point teaser and pay less juice. Any chance that the line moves to -8.5?

paperchamp · #6 10-17-2006, 10:08 PM

I don't like this pick. I think that the line is fairly accurate considering that Pittsburgh is a better team then a lot of people are giving them credit right now. Obviously Ben had some issues but he seemed to have his confidence back last week. Pittsburgh has a had a very tough schedule and they were still in all those games despite Ben throwing 7 INTs and 0 TDs. If Ben had played just decent instead of terrible, they could be 5-0 right now. The defense is still one of the best (Troy Polamalu is healthy again) and the offense can be very efficient if Ben has his stuff together. I'm not dying to put a bet on Pittsburgh either at this point, Ben has just been too unpredictable, but if I was forced to make pick it would be Steelers -2.5.

rjp · #7 10-17-2006, 10:13 PM

I agree. Atlanta takes this one more often than not.

anatta · #8 10-18-2006, 12:42 AM

I took Bucs as home dog Sunday v. CIN, luck was with me. Bucs just traded DE to INDY, they are playing for next year. Eagles coming off a loss, know have to keep pace. I like it at -5.5.

NoChance · #9 10-18-2006, 01:03 AM

Watch out for the Steelers. I think they are just getting healthy and hitting their stride. I am actually pleased with how they have played so far even though they have a losing record to this point.

Week 1: Beat Miami 28-17. Nothing special. They beat an over-hyped Miami team. The interception for a TD late in the game made everyone here happy due to the Mansion bet. That did not decide the game, only the cover.

Week 2: Lost 9-0 at Jacksonville. Jacksonville played one hell of a game. I don't think anyone would have beat them that night in their house. This was a great game and an acceptable loss to a tough team on the road.

Week 3: Lost 20-28 to Cincy. They had this game in hand and then 2 late fumbles gave the game away. This is only loss that makes me angry. They should have won this.

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: Lost 13-23 at San Diego. Again, this is an acceptable loss. San Diego is one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the league in my opinion.

Week 6: Beat Kansas City 45-7. Kansas City is one-dimentional. They run LJ with a beat up O-line and have a backup QB leading the team. Pitt stops the run. That leaves KC with little chance.

One thing I noticed against KC is Ben was finally sharp. His passes finally had some zip on them. Ward had hamstring problems early on and is finally getting healthy. Holmes is starting to get better and fill the role El left behind. The only thing I don't like about him is the fumbles on punt returns. The Davenport addition is exactly what the Steelers needed to replace Bettis and give Parker some needed rest once in a while. Davenport obviously will never be as good as Bettis when comparing careers but he is as good as Bettis was last year (I am talking skill, not leadership).

Now, I am in no way saying bet the Steelers, I am simply saying the Steelers are coming together right now and the record is misleading when you look at the schedule they have played. This line could be minus 3 either direction and be correct. It should be a close game. I see little value here for either team. It is just another good matchup.

Staying off this game.

vexel77 · #10 10-18-2006, 09:23 AM

The money is piling on the steelers and will continue to do so for the rest of the week. The line at bet365 has already moved a full point since monday. I really cant see atlanta winning this game. The steelers defense is too strong, and big ben looks like hes pulled his head out of his arse. The falcons let tiki run all over them last week and i still believe that their run stopping problems from last season have returned even with grady jackson in there. The Falcons O line hung vick out to dry last week and they will do the smae against this very strong steeler defense.
Jim Mora has too many problems to address this week, poor run defense, poor offensive line pass blocking and he also has to address the fact that the majority of players on his defense simply forgot how to tackle last week.
I know a lot of people think that the Falcons had a great start to the season and should be the favourites in this game but they forget that the Falcs had a great start last season (defeating the eagles in the first MNF) and then quickly fell apart. The same will happen this season. They also point to the fact that the steelers havent been great this year, yet they forget that the steelers possess a championship quality defense.. FACT. I took 3 units on the steelers at -1.5(11/10) earlier in the week and im feeeling happy about it. For those of you looking to go with the Falcons id wait till later in the week you may be able to pick them up at +3(11/10).
Also the fact that they were making very little noise in the dome last week when the Falcons were winning leads me to believe that it is not that great an advantage.