KK - Overpair + Flush Draw Faces Odd Turn Donk Multiway

SixForty · #1 10-16-2006, 04:19 PM

I know this is a big pot, but how often am I actually going to win this here?

Live 10/20, 10-handed - nice and juicy loose/aggressive game

Reads:
SB - after about 4 hours at the table, he seems to be pretty downright average and relatively straight forward, I don't recall him getting out of line very much at all
UTG+2 - semi-tight/semi-passive, she's an older lady that I play against every now and then, maybe once a week or so, I'd say that she used to be tight/passive, but she seems to be getting better lately, and playing a little bit more aggressively, but her preflop capping range is still very tight
MP2 - loose/passive, pretty much your standard calling station
MP3 - unknown, only been at the table for about 3 orbits, nothing out of the ordinary yet

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players, 21 SB)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 15.5 BB)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players, 20.5 BB)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero . . . ?

I can't imagine that I'm good here very often at all, but getting 22.5-1? With the semi-tight/semi-passive in there, can I overcall? Should I lay it down in this big pot, or is it fur coat theory time?

ninjaunderwear · #2 10-16-2006, 04:27 PM

You're good at least 5% here. Closing the action, crying call.

What are you putting SB and UTG+2 on?

Niediam · #3 10-16-2006, 04:36 PM

I would call the river 100% of the time.

I think a more interesting question is how much value there is to making a turn raise...

Xhad · #4 10-16-2006, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are you putting SB and UTG+2 on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about UTG2, but SB looks like he has 9x.

Still, I agree, pot's just too damn big to be sure.

SixForty · #5 10-16-2006, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are you putting SB and UTG+2 on?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG+2 absolutely has an overpair. She capped preflop, and she's seeing a showdown with this action. Her preflop capping range used to be {AA, KK}, but now I'd say she's loosened up to capping with QQ and maybe JJ also, but doubfully TT. She may also cap with AK, but she's not seeing a showdown with that unimproved here. So by the river, her range is squarely {AA, KK, QQ, and sometimes JJ} So I'm ahead of her maybe somewhere around 60% of the time.

As for SB, he cold-called a preflop 3-bet and the cap. Then he called 2 cold on the flop and bet out the turn into 4 opponents. To me, most of the time this means one of two things. Either:

- SB flopped a big hand, wanted to check/raise, but didn't want to check/3-bet and lose everyone.

or

- the 9 helped him in some way. If it did help him in some way, then I'm definitely behind him now.

I simply can't think of a hand that SB will play this way that I beat.

somapopper · #6 10-16-2006, 07:34 PM

A turn raise seems awfully dangerous to me, and I'm certainly happy to just call.

SBs line is confusing, so I have trouble putting him on a hand. I could fold in a pot this big only holding KK, but since I can't definatively put SB on something here, I feel the overcall is necessary.

MoreWineII · #7 10-16-2006, 10:16 PM

SB feels like a small flush or something.

Still, I call down and hope the board pair helped.

Someone mentioned a turn raise, I think there might be value in that - especially if SB is unlikely to 3-bet.

JJH3984 · #8 10-17-2006, 03:52 AM

*Grunch*

Just call. I think your good way more than once in 22.

Edit: ungrunch* I thought about a turn raise, but I don't think we have the equity to do it. Its probably close though.

Mygtar · #9 10-17-2006, 08:32 AM

I don't like the flop raise as it opens us up for a re-raise. If anything I would have waited for a blank on the turn to get more aggressive. As played call it down for the size of the pot.

Peace,
Mygtar