Bubble Play

[degenrat]

4.40 180 man SNG on stars. 18 pay. there are 25 left. blinds are 100-200 with a 25 ante iirc.

hero has 12k average is 9k.

villain has been abusing the bubble. Overbetting weak hands and folding to pressure for the most part.

Villain raises to 1000 from mp. Heros is in the BB and repops to $3500 from the BB.

Villain thinks a while and calls. This villain thinks a lot about making marginal calls, using lots of time. i have him pegged as VERY weak here. Flop comes 922o. Hero pushes.

Hows my line?

[Soulman]

Uh...what's your hand?

[gmac]

Helps if we know what hand you are playing yes...

[andre006]

[ QUOTE ]
i have him pegged as VERY weak here. Flop comes 922o. Hero pushes.

Hows my line?

[/ QUOTE ]
Call?

[degenrat]

this si a spot where i believe my cards are irrelevant.

I am making the same play with 27o as i am with 10s or jacks.

Hows my line. how's my thinking? do you need cards here?

[elstunar]

I'm not sure if I like this or not. You say villain has been folding to pressure when he overbets weak hands, yet he puts in over 1/3 of his stack preflop to call your raise. I doubt he has folded TOO many hands where he has put in that much otherwise he'd probably be out already. I don't know if you have that much fold equity here with villain left w/ only ~5500 and a pot of over 7k. If you've seen villain lay down hands in situations like this where he's getting good odds, then maybe this is ok. But I feel that you're going to be called a lot here since he doesn't even have a PSB left in his stack.

[degenrat]

Aargh, Forgot to mention villains chips were 16k at the beginning of the hand.

[FortunaMaximus]

Your hand only matters in that you will need a reasonable chance of improving for the times you're called.

Counting on FE alone in flop pushes is -EV in the long term.

[mornelth]

given your stack size after the preflop action - you pretty much have to push here since you have about the size of the pot left.

It's good to have some sort of a hand here because FE alone is not enough since this is NOT the flop that villain can believe you have connected with - he's insta-calling you with any 9 and just about any PP, because he will "put you on AK".

His 5x raise PF (unless it's been his standard amount) tells me that he had some sort of a medium PP (hence the large raise - "I have a hand but I don't REALLY want to play a pot with it").

If you have NOTHING - I may check this flop and if he checks as well - I push any broadway card on the turn.

[degenrat]

nice analysis.

My read on the vilain was maybe a small PP 44-88 or a weak A A5-A10. His 5xbb bet meant weakness. fairly weak holdings.

I hoped my substancial repop PF representd a big PP. I believe he folds any flop that doesn't hit his hand pretty hard.

For the record, i was wrong. lol