Overcard flops to my PP, how much should I fear it?

[TripleJ]

Satellite pays top 9, we are down to 64 out of 650 players. It's the FT Weekly Qualifier to 7 Seat Aussie Freeroll. No reads on villian; villian has seen me come back from a very short stack to an average size stack in the last half hour by winning three coinflips.

(This is my first post and unfortunately, I've already f***ed it up. The hand wasn't saved in my hand histories so I altered another hand and estimated the numbers.)

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t300/t600
(Ante: t75)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t10000
UTG+1: t30000
MP1: t20000
MP2: t15000
MP3: t10000
CO: t10000
Hero: t9500
SB: t13000
BB: t8600

Starting pot: t1575

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is on Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, MP3 calls t600, 1 fold, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t2000</font>, 2 folds, MP3 calls t1400

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (pot is t5575)

MP3 bets t1600, Hero calls t1600.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot is t8775)

MP3 bets t6400, and is all-in, Hero ???

I hated seeing the K flop, but his bet was small enough that I could call and re-evaluate the turn. Should I believe he has a K and fold with t5900 and an M of 3.5 left? I started the hand with an M of 6.

[TripleJ]

Come on, reply to my first post ever guys. I need all the help I can get. Is this an obvious fold or an acceptable call?

[TheBlueMonster]

obvious fold

[J.A.K.]

Push preflop. As played and w/out reads I may can find a fold on the flop. Villain has committed over 1/3 of his stack and may be massaging the pot on a safe board w/TPGK or set. Pushing the flop will be advocated here as well. You seem to be married to your Q's here and "HOPING" v does not have a hand. Calling the flop and folding a blank turn is horrible.

Welcome to the forums.

[mornelth]

raise or fold flop, flat calling is not optimal here IMO

[Supwithbates]

I don't understand pushing this flop... you're not folding any K here and no worse hand is calling. You're very unlikely to improve and giving free cards isn't too dangerous on this board either. I'm not too much a fan of calling either, as villian is unlikely to lead here without JJ+ or a K. I fold flop.

[twoakers]

I'd push pre-flop. Odds are you'll win it right then, and the pot would be approx 2100, which is somewhere around 23% of your starting chipstack. If someone calls you, they probably have overcards or a smaller pair, both of which are good for you. If you get unlucky and run into A-A or K-K, oh well, lousy luck. A-K is the only other real dangerous hand, and even then you're a favorite. Since your question regards post-flop play, I'd fold.

[kuro]

Push preflop. As played, flop/turn are read dependent. Raising the flop doesn't really accomplish anything because you pot commit yourself against hands that have you dominated and fold out hands that have you beat.

You can make a strong argument for folding to the donk flop bet because it's a satelite and you still will have a workable stack if you fold and you don't have any read on villain. If you decide to call the donk bet on the flop then I think you have to be consistent and call the push on the turn because you induced that push and villain is behind most of the time in a low buyin tourney.