Place finish distribution

[IFoldPktOnes]

( <=== forum noob )

Hi,
I was wondering if there is some general place finish distribution that can be expected over a large sample of sit'n gos.

Just for the purpose of an example, in 60 $2.5 + 0.25 tables I played I finished:

1st 11
2nd 14
3rd 10
4th 6
5th 9
6th 3
7th 2
8th 3
9th 2
10th 0

I realise my sample size is extremely low, and that the skill level at $2.5 tables is like-wise.

From this there is a (very) roughly linear relationship, I had a look around at a few other larger samples to try and get an idea of a better approximation. Because of the nature of the payouts, generally (for a winning player) there is a drop off in 3rd place finishes and a greater number of 1st's. So I think maybe two linear relationships between 1st-3rd and 4th-10th probably fit most data better.

Many factors are in play and a linear relationship could be a huge over-simplification.

Can anyone with large sample sizes suggest what this relationship should look like for a winning player, or what an optimal (and realistic) spread of finishes should look like?


-----------------------------------------------------------
(skip over the rest if you want to avoid more ranting)

One purpose of this question is that it would be useful to understand the general trend in place finishes so that variance can be better understood for small sample sizes.

For example, since I started playing $5.5 tables I’ve had 9 1st's, 3 2nd's and 11 3rd's over 56 games and feel that I’ve had a few bad beats causing 3rd finishes and perhaps a bit of luck in my heads up's. (I don't feel I have played over aggressive)

So if I looked at the full distribution of finishes maybe I could estimate what my money place results "should" have averaged out to be. However, I could just be wrong and maybe there's just too many variables involved to even speculate. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Disclaimer:
I realise a monkey could beat $2.5 tables, and it's probably not worth analysing, but i take it seriously anyway [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[BradleyT]

You should add in some 10th place finishes.

At lower buyins I lose all the time when I push AA/KK the first hand.

[IFoldPktOnes]

On $2.5 tables someone is usually all in before you catch a hand [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

I just gave it as an example so you'd know what im talking about, the numbers don't actually matter.

[Rhett]

ifold, you sure put a lot of effort into your avatar right off the bat.

Your distro looks good.

[IFoldPktOnes]

Thanks man, its amazing what google can find.

I was using the pic on PokerStars until it got removed for being "misleading", because someone may mistake it for my actual cards...