PP 99 on the bubble. Do we push?

[Raiseren1]

PF opener has been pretty LAG. Forgot to look at the flat callers stats before I pushed. I figured with all the dead money in the pot this was a easy push. But now I don't know? Is it really worth to take coin-flip risks on the bubble?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t5575)
Button (t3155)
SB (t2985)
Hero (t1785)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t500, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1785</font>,

[VORP]

Why would you push this? Your stack is short enough that there is no way they both fold, plus you will know a lot more about your hand after seeing a flop.

[DaN_05]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you push this? Your stack is short enough that there is no way they both fold, plus you will know a lot more about your hand after seeing a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're suggesting just calling PF - that sucks on so many levels. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[She]

You think he should call w/ over 1/3 of his stack to see the flop before pushing?

If it's a high flop (Say T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) then what? He has 3rd pair and about 66% equity left. I would have thought to either push or fold here...
Wait for a better hand maybe, but why call?

[abarber]

If your read is correct, the push is fine over UTG's raise, but you're probably flipping against SB's range. I say wait for a better spot, but I'm a huge nit.

[GoodOL]

I agree that calling is a bad idea...it's push or fold.

Arguments for pushing:
-Raiser is laggy and could easily be raising weak (e.g. A8s, 66, etc.)
-Cold caller showed weakness
-Gives raiser a chance to reraise to get HU (which he should do if he decides to play hand)

Arguments for folding
-Raiser might bust SB getting you ITM
-Although stack will be small (1585), it's still playable

I would lean towards pushing....

[morgan180]

calling here is terrible.

if we assume that the raiser is calling 100% of time it just comes down to what range you put him on.


30% its a clear push
15% its even
anything tighter than that its a fold

based on your read i would push.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
You think he should call w/ over 1/3 of his stack to see the flop before pushing?

If it's a high flop (Say T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) then what? He has 3rd pair and about 66% equity left. I would have thought to either push or fold here...
Wait for a better hand maybe, but why call?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Raiseren1]

Could someone who are good at this make some EV calculations showing what is EV+ and EV-. So we could end this discussion knowing without doubt what the best move is?

[flyty86]

i push this pretty quickly.