Turn big draw

Skuzzy · #1 10-14-2006, 09:42 AM

Hi, my game is all fecked up after signing up at cardrunners [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Villain is 25/9/2.5 over 200 hands - (I didn't have stats at the time just a read he was tight and not bad). My image is Tight but very Agro. I wanted to push but was unsure if i would fold anything he is likely to have. I put him on a Ten, JJ+ or a weak draw.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.20
UTG+1: $87.95
CO: $103.50
Skuzzy: $98.50
SB: $23.60
BB: $102.55

Pre-flop: (6 players) Skuzzy is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO raises to $3.5, Skuzzy calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($11.5, 3 players)
SB checks, CO bets $11.5, Skuzzy calls, SB folds.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($34.5, 2 players)
CO bets $25, Skuzzy ???

jk3a · #2 10-14-2006, 09:57 AM

You probably don't have much FE based on the turn bet. You're getting about 2.3:1 and you both would have about 60 left in an 88 dollar pot if you just called. All 15 outs are likely good. We're a 31:15 dog to hit. Clearly, we must atleast call. So it all depends on what kind of FE we think we have. I don't think we have much, so I would just call.

Womble · #3 10-14-2006, 10:00 AM

I dont like the flop. here is some figures for you:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.3133 % 53.31% 00.00% { 8s6s }
Hand 2: 46.6867 % 46.69% 00.00% { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+ }

He could have alot more then that - any idea on his CBet sizes? The above assumes he has 2 overs or better but he could have worse crap.

Basically - you have FE vs alot of his range like weak T and overcards. Overpairs may call (they may fold too) but you are good vs them

I never knew how good a flush+gutshot was [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Womble · #4 10-14-2006, 10:03 AM

Oh yea, my advice - raise flop big to 40-0 or push (cant decid on this one. On the turn, continuing with the range above:

Board: 4s 5d Ts 3d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.7506 % 32.75% 00.00% { 8s6s }
Hand 2: 67.2494 % 67.25% 00.00% { TT+, ATs, ATo }

Not so good here - his bet eliminates alot of his CBet range but you are getting odds here. Call

True · #5 10-14-2006, 10:12 AM

flop isn't bad if we can exploit a bigger edge later.

True

faded · #6 10-14-2006, 10:21 AM

sometimes i raise the flop, sometimes i call... as played, i'd fold the turn. i don't like raising here, i dont think you have any FE.

True · #7 10-14-2006, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i raise the flop, sometimes i call... as played, i'd fold the turn. i don't like raising here, i dont think you have any FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you fold?

True

faded · #8 10-14-2006, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i raise the flop, sometimes i call... as played, i'd fold the turn. i don't like raising here, i dont think you have any FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you fold?

True

[/ QUOTE ]

because i like little boys.

misread the hand, i'm calling the turn.

Skuzzy · #9 10-14-2006, 10:29 AM

K, thanks. I'll go with the general consensus that top pair calls here. Would it matter if this were 2/4?

faded · #10 10-14-2006, 10:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
K, thanks. I'll go with the general consensus that top pair calls here. Would it matter if this were 2/4?

[/ QUOTE ]

i've never played 2/4, so i can't comment on that. i do think you can raise the turn if you were at least 200bb deep.