river bluff

[Lucky_River]

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3

[acesovercole]

Wouldn't you have wanted to raise on the turn? It looks too much like you're just trying to buy the pot on 5th street here. All he needs to beat you is a single diamond or any of the cards on the board. Clearly, with this river bet, you are representing a diamond. Plus, on the river, there is a total of 9.75 BB in the pot after your raise. He has already commited 1 BB on the river. I don't know... I really just think bluffing on the turn would have been correct. He's been betting the whole time and he even raised preflop. He could have like, AQ, KQ, or something like that. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's where I would have made a bluff attempt.

[acesovercole]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't you have wanted to raise on the turn? It looks too much like you're just trying to buy the pot on 5th street here. All he needs to beat you is a single diamond or any of the cards on the board. Clearly, with this river bet, you are representing a diamond. Plus, on the river, there is a total of 9.75 BB in the pot after your raise. He has already commited 1 BB on the river. I don't know... I really just think bluffing on the turn would have been correct. He's been betting the whole time and he even raised preflop. He could have like, AQ, KQ, or something like that. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's where I would have made a bluff attempt.

[/ QUOTE ]
On top of that... say he is holding AQ or KQ. If you rep the diamond flush with a reraise on the turn, he only has 4 outs to beat you. two Q's and two 2's. Any thoughts?

[OrianasDaad]

Grunch

In order for me to resteal with ATs here, I'd want to either be against a TAG who steals the blinds far too often, or against a total maniac. I'll go with the latter.

Flop is ragged, but there is a flush draw out there. Since I've decided to resteal with ATs, I'd prefer a raise. If MP3 is worse and isn't dominated by our hand, then he has six outs to see the next card. While he shouldn't be putting money in if he doesn't have to with this hand, if we only call here he's getting 8.5-1, which is enough for him to call with if he had checked and we had bet.

If he's the type of player that can 3-bet with garbage, then I might cap it.

Turn completes a potential flush and puts a second broadway on the board. I'm liking my hand less and less against even a random hand here. Right now, the only normal stealing hands we are beating are A8-A2o and KTo, maybe 98. Given your apparent "read", that I'm guessing based on your cards and play, then just calling down might be marginally +EV here.

River looks like spew to me. He's only going to fold hands that you already have beaten, and he'll call with everything that you lose to.