Dancing with the Stars 10/11

[llabb]

Sorry, this probably isn't useful to anyone, except perhaps a gut check to those trailing in the past. Just before showtime right now. Been out traveling for work all day. Just barely made it to a Kinko's to check in before showtime.

3 for 3 on eliminations in the past 3 weeks, +9 units.

Positions of:
win 4 units on Jerry
win 8 units on Willa or Monique
lose 4 units on anyone else

Think Jerry is most likely to go home this week, and there was value on Willa and Monique, who are next most likely imo. Only reason winning would be more on them, is because odds got up to +1000 earlier.

[llabb]

Mario and Monique safe. One hedge out, still looking for Jerry or Willa to leave.

It will eventually be Sara's time to get kicked off, though, and there's even a small chance of Joey leaving in a surprise, too. I've been making good money off Sara hanging around due to a strong base, but eventually they'll tire. Just like Kellie on AI, who got booted off 6th. Anyway, results in 15 min.

[llabb]

Down to Willa and Jerry, no risk anymore, will be another great week. Sorry guys, will try to post earlier next time.

[bigalt]

nice work. how do you get a perfect 3/3 record when you bet on more than one person each week though? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[llabb]

Willa gone! 4-for-4, +17 units now. Eventually I'll take a loss, but really happy with this so far.

There have been 7-11 contestants over the past weeks. I'm not trying to pick the single 1 out of 11. I'm trying to win money, find value, and eliminate risk where possible.

Each week, I pick 2-3 people, with varying amounts on each, depending on value. If one of those goes home, it is a win, if one of the other 5-8 people go home, I lose. I've picked better than any pundit/writer out there.

For this week, if any of the 4 other contestants had gone home, I would have lost 4 units, as stated in the OP. I'm not picking all favorites either, only where there's value. This week I picked 1 favorite and 2 longshots. I've correctly identified 3 longshots out of 4 weeks now.

So basically, my total wagers are usually close to a 50-50 betting proposition (and probably worth anywhere from 60-40 to 70-30 in +EV), but with the potential to win much more if a longshot comes through.

[bigalt]

can't argue with +17 units! nicely done!

[llabb]

Is anyone else watching this show, due to the wife/GF?