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#1
10-10-2006, 10:15 AM
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Who to check-raise?
I am first going to paste a reply I made in another thread regarding semi-bluff check-raising the turn.
[ QUOTE ] I feel like my semi-bluffs just about never work at 2/4 and 3/6. At higher stakes, or at NL, it's different. But I can never get anyone to fold for one bet. I'd like to know how often a turn semi-bluff heads up needs to work in order to be +EV. So I'll try to do the math. On a flush draw, with 9 outs, you're 9/46 (19.57% -- we'll say 20% to make our lives easier) to hit your draw. So, to be profitable, your opponent would have to fold X%, when considering: If you don't check-raise, then you'll lose no additional bets and gain an extra one on the river 20% of the time. If you check-fold the river UI, the EV, from the point at which we're entering this analysis, is .2BB. If you do check-raise, and get called, you'll gain two extra bets 20% of the time (again assuming check-fold river UI), and lose an extra bet 80% of the time. The EV is -.4BB. So to make the check-raise profitable, you have to recover what you are giving up with the extra turn bet (forget the fact that you could get three-bet as well) by the chance that your opponent folds what otherwise might be the best hand right then and there. In New001's example, there are 4BB in the pot on the turn when he check-raises. In order to make this check-raise profitable, he must recover the .6BB EV he is losing from the times when it doesn't. In other words, 4*X = .6. X = 15%. (The general formula would be X = .6/potsize ... obviously, the play is much more valuable in larger pots). I know that the math leaves out a lot of smaller possibilities, but this is the gist of it as I see it. If this guy is going to fold to a check-raise 15% of the time or more, then it is worth it given this pot size. Against aggressive opponents who might 3-bet you on the turn, my intuition is that this number is substantially higher, maybe even double (someone bump this in the morning and I'll do the analysis at work tomorrow, if you want). Now, who can pull a PT DB query and find out how often people straight out fold to turn CRs? [/ QUOTE ] I would love for my original question (the last line of the quote) to still be answered, but I also have a new one: What type of player is most likely to fold to a check-raise? Would an aggressive player be more likely to fold, because he is more likely to bet when checked to with a weak hand? Or is a passive player, who is weak in the face of aggression, more likely to give up easily? Anyone want to pull PT stats and do a scatter chart of folded to check-raise % vs. post-flop aggression? (Damn, I was the computer science major, I should do it...) 
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