Panel hand #2 - flop part 2 panel review

[FUJItheFISH]

You actually bet. MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, button cold-calls, Hero?

Pot is now 17.5 small bets when it is your action.

7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="blue">Panelist 1
This is an easy 3 bet. I want as much money going in on this flop as possible considering my out count and equity I estimated.

If I call, the other two players will call for 2 more bets. Calling = 2 more sb
If I raise, it's likely that at least one of MP1 and MP2 will call 2 bets, in addition to the original raiser and cold caller. MP3 might even cap it, which would be great.
Raising = 2-10 more sb. </font>

<font color="red">Panelist 2
Since we assume loose opponents the callers can have almost any two cards (including sandbagged T's, of course). If the raiser has a T our equity is only 1/4 instead of 1/3, so a raise would only be for value if everyone calls. Since we can't be sure if a raise would be for value and we can't make free card play I just call the raise. </font>

<font color="purple">Panelist 3
MP3's raise probably indicates one of the following:

a passively-played overpair (rather unlikely)
an inferior flush draw looking for a free card
a ten raising for value
another pair like 99 (also unlikely if he's not that aggressive)

The button's cold-call likely indicates either a flush or straight draw, or some weird "tricky" way of playing trips.

Now, to consider our action. If we just call, we encourage the other loose players who called ealier to call (which helps us maintain our equity edge). If we raise, we are essentially hoping the fish won't fold, as if they do, we end up with three players, one of whom may have trips and cap, which would be bad for our hand. Since our flush is vulnerable to the boat redraw, and since we want to keep our loose opponents in the hand, I think a call is best here. </font>

<font color="green">Panelist 4
I will call the raise. This does mean that the other MP1 and MP2 will likely call behind for just one more bet. I am still drawing here on a paired board, but the pot is getting large. The button cold call has caught me attention though. This places him on a draw or he caught trips on the flop and is smooth calling here. (Part of me wants to reraise, to protect my hand to try and push MP1 and MP2 off their hands, in the large pot since I will having drawing odds to the end of the hand. I can't make a strong arguement for it yet and will go with my standard play here..call.) </font>

[btspider]

PF: raise
Flop: bet-call

Paired board hurts our outs. The cold-call as well may indicate that more than a random amount of our flush outs are being held by our opponents. I will likely bet a turn [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

comment on panelist:
panelist one: you haven't adjusted your outs given this new information. while a cap may be great if everyone comes along, it also indicates that your equity is lower. simply comparing 2 SB's vs 2-10 SB's is not accurate.

[Str8Fish]

I understand Panelist 1's logic, but I'd rather err on the side of caution on a paired board.

[milesdyson]

i just call the flop too

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
The cold-call as well may indicate that more than a random amount of our flush outs are being held by our opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Buzz-cp]

So far this is the only interesting point of action. I think I probably just call the raise with the paired board and the 2 other villains to act behind us. They may just be convinced that their hand is no good and drop. If they drop, then it is 3-way--not value for a flush draw. Overcards may not be good on this board.

Buzz

[Shillx]

PF is gay [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Flop bet is fine. Reraising is okay if the dude could be on a draw. So if MP3 is good I would at least consider re-raising. Against typical players just call but be prepared to BET the turn if you make a flush.