|
|
#1
10-08-2006, 08:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Who beat the moneyline?
Now that the regular season is over it's always interesting to look back and see which teams performed the best and worst against the moneyline. The winner was a team I touted often throughout the season. This years moneyline championship team none other than the KANSAS CITY ROYALS. That's right the lowly, rotten, stinking Royals. They only won 62 games but ended up over 21 units ahead. Here are the top and bottom 5.
Winners 1. KC +21.75 2. NYM +21.25 3. OAK +18.9 4. MIN +15 5. BOS +9.15 Losers 1. CUBS -18.1 2. HOU -15.1 3. WAS -13.55 4. TB -13.55 5. NYY -13.1 Interestingly we find winners and losers overall on both lists. Which teams will be the undervalued and overinflated next season? We get to start solving that puzzle next April. 
|
|
#2
10-08-2006, 08:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Who beat the moneyline?
do you know how each one of these teams performed last year? i imagine one of two trends dominate. either value teams stay value teams over the long haul, or there is a tendcy for some value teams to become -ev the next year because the public recognizes the trend and jumps on the bandwagon next season.
without any data i am assume the first effect is the dominating effect. but i was wondering if you knew where this information is available for previous years so i can have a lot at that
|
|
#3
10-08-2006, 08:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Who beat the moneyline?
I'm really suprised to see TB on the losers list...
I can see Mets doing better than before because of the early season expectations... Could you give a list of where NYY and KC fall each season for last 5... I wouldn't be suprised to see some nasty bias in there.
|
|
#5
10-08-2006, 09:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Who beat the moneyline?
I haven't kept past data but it's something I look at every season. KC usually does pretty well if I recall as they never get line respect. NYY almost always leads the loser list due to inflated lines. I too thought TB would do better than they did. One more loss than KC but a huge difference in units. They musta only won against other losers and not done the giant killer routine of the previous year when they handled NYY. Boston surprised me as well as I figured their second half swoon would have certainly turned them negative.
|
|
#7
10-08-2006, 09:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Who beat the moneyline?
[ QUOTE ]
NYY almost always leads the loser list due to inflated lines. [/ QUOTE ] Since getting into this a couple of yrs ago I've had the theory that the very simple strategy of fading the Yankees for 162 games would have a very good chance of being profitable. With ALDS disappointment and frustration and now the Torre firing I'm thinking there might not be quite as much band-wagoning on the all-mighty Yankees and the lines might not be quite so out-of-whack.
|
|
#8
10-08-2006, 10:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Who beat the moneyline?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] NYY almost always leads the loser list due to inflated lines. [/ QUOTE ] With ALDS disappointment and frustration and now the Torre firing I'm thinking there might not be quite as much band-wagoning on the all-mighty Yankees and the lines might not be quite so out-of-whack. [/ QUOTE ] I doubt it ... sqaures are always going to bet the yankees, thus the lines will stay fat.
|
|
#10
10-09-2006, 08:35 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Who beat the moneyline?
[ QUOTE ]
just guessing that on august 1, detroit was in the top list and kc wasn't? [/ QUOTE ] Probably not. KC did real well against the line starting in June. A dismal April and May set the tone for all the juicy lines the rest of the way. From August 1st KC was 24-31 while Detroit was 25-31. I'm sure KC picked up units on Detroit in that stretch because they were always dogs and Detroit had gained line respect but if I remember right they were already ahead of them at that point.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
