Good Lord I'm Passive

[Justin A]

Fun Party 2/4 table. (Aren't they all?)

Villain is 16/4/1.5

Villain raises UTG1, moron cold calls in MP, I 3bet on the button with AKs. 3 ways.

Flop comes Ah 6h Jc. Villain bets, moron calls, I raise, villain 3bets, moron folds, I call.

Turn is Ac. Villain bets I call.

River is 4c. Villain bets I call.

Thoughts?

[TripleH68]

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Villain is 16/4/1.5

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Since you are obviously not folding I don't see the problem here.
If anything I might cap the flop before calling down.

[ncboiler]

Cap flop. Raise turn but slow down to a re-raise expecting a set of a/j but hoping for a/q or a/k.

[A_C_Slater]

He wouldn't raise AQ UTG? If he could only have AQ,AK, or JJ after that flop action and you 3betting preflop then it's not too passive at all against this one opponent.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Cap flop. Raise turn but slow down to a re-raise expecting a set of a/j but hoping for a/q or a/k.

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That's entirely too much action against this type of opponent.

[shant]

How many hands is this read? I don't think I'd cap the flop just because it makes it really easy for him to checkraise the turn with JJ. I'm trying to decide if raising the turn is right. I think even a 4% PFR would cap AK, but he might also call in this spot preflop. I guess it just comes down to a hand range combo math problem between AK/AQ/JJ.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands is this read? I don't think I'd cap the flop just because it makes it really easy for him to checkraise the turn with JJ. I'm trying to decide if raising the turn is right. I think even a 4% PFR would cap AK, but he might also call in this spot preflop. I guess it just comes down to a hand range combo math problem between AK/AQ/JJ.

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Throw AJ into his range also. Obviously AQ is not going to make up enough of his range to be raising here.

[W. Deranged]

This is fine in position I think. I think raising the turn and calling down from there is actually going to be close.

We should note that the only reason you can get this passive is because you are in position.

This strikes me largely as one of those "how confident can you be in your PT stats based on such-and-such a sample size" questions. In other words, a lot of what you decide to do is based on how confident you are in the passivity of your opponent. In general, if you are confident, it comes down to just balancing the possibilities of AK, JJ, and AQ. There are 4 AQs, 6 JJs, and some AKs that don't matter cause it's a chop anyway. There are also some AJs maybe which make it less worthwhile to raise. You get the idear.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
This is fine in position I think. I think raising the turn and calling down from there is actually going to be close.

We should note that the only reason you can get this passive is because you are in position.

This strikes me largely as one of those "how confident can you be in your PT stats based on such-and-such a sample size" questions. In other words, a lot of what you decide to do is based on how confident you are in the passivity of your opponent. In general, if you are confident, it comes down to just balancing the possibilities of AK, JJ, and AQ. There are 4 AQs, 6 JJs, and some AKs that don't matter cause it's a chop anyway. There are also some AJs maybe which make it less worthwhile to raise. You get the idear.

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I think another interesting thing is that if the river had paired the 6, I still would have just called a bet.

[Fryguy]

What doesn't cap preflop that we are losing to?

JJ almost certainly caps, no? AA obviously caps, AK would probably cap, and we beat everything else.

I'm probably too chicken to raise again here as well, but I don't really see how we are behind.

Thoughts on playing the flop the same, and then raising the turn?