>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Insider Play<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

[Midseason]

I have just been told the SMU QB is out go hit UTEP -10.5 wherever you can

[Lori]

I've had a go, thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Lori

[B00T]

How much do you think the line is going to move?

Edit: Pinny has the game offline now so something is definitely up. I am unsure how much I should just blindly lay right now. Any suggestions?

[bigalt]

how very mysterious.

[WaimanaloSlim]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2616052

[llabb]

Nice alert, thanks. On this as well. Looks like quite a big dropoff in QB talent, and that Willis was largely responsible for their previous wins.

[llabb]

The relevant part of the ESPN article is paraphrased below:

Willis = 80-for-118 passing for 841 yards, 12 touchdown, 145 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Rating of 156.1.

Slater = 7-for-18 for 54 yards. Primary playing time = 5-of-10 for 47 yards and an interception. Rating of 50.3.

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In last week's game, Willis was their whole offense (on the ground and in the air). He had like all their yards last week against Tulane. He was just starting to get rolling. Earlier, they only scored 9 pts in their first 2 games. So without him, they should definitely struggle.

At 156 vs. 50, Willis' rating is 3x better than the backup QB, a juco transfer who probably hasn't even practiced much with the starters.

Also, UTEP is a passing team, and SMU is not great against the pass. Carson Palmer's younger brother is QB at UTEP. I think he has started the last few years, and is having a good year. He should torch the SMU secondary.

I see UTEP winning by at least 2-3 TD's, probably more like 4-5, but don't want to go out on a limb. Line is now -13 and still takeable imo.

[mulebennett]

i like this a lot. SMU has a nice run defense and UTEP has a horrible rush offense, but SMU allows nearly 290 ypg in the air, and UTEP throws the ball 290 ypg in the air. this should be a nice matchup

[llabb]

Line up to -15 now, so obviously it was correct that the -13 was takeable. Even at the current lines...I think you can take it. Sounds high to those who saw it lower, but if you buy down to the -14 or -13.5, it's a pretty good line still.

Because -21 would not be a crazy line to me. It would be difficult for it to get bet up that high, and indeed be crazy if it moved all the way up there. But from a pure capping standpoint, at this point, from what I've read, it sounds reasonable to expect 3 TD's. I think the final score could well be 4-5 TD's ahead.

You can get -14 at -104 and -13.5 at -110, which I think is still worth taking. Very interested to see how high this line can go. Total scrub in at QB for SMU.

[Jibba]

Still -14 at Mansion and Pinney.