trips top kicker - river donk

Buzz-cp · #1 10-06-2006, 04:42 PM

villain's stats are looking laggy after about 2 orbits: 60/20/.8, but I must admit I have not seen anything spectacular about his post-flop play.

I get donked into on the river--raise?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Buzz is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 raises, Buzz 3-bets, 4 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.5SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Buzz bets, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5.25BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Buzz bets, MP3 calls.

River: (7.25BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 bets, Buzz ??

MrMysterious · #2 10-06-2006, 04:56 PM

now im no expert, but I think that your probobly good to raise call here. i mean, if he has 99, then ya, your screwed, I just think that hes trying to bluff you too often if your read is right.

Im thinking of all the other crap this guy might be playing, maybe he is just sick of people cont. betting him outta pots. either way, i think you can raise call.

Bona · #3 10-06-2006, 04:58 PM

IMO TT is a logical holding so I probably call down. I don't play 2/4. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit but I can't see Raise-check-check-bet this board with anything else?

Buzz-cp · #4 10-06-2006, 04:59 PM

Bona--i'm beating TT

MrMysterious · #5 10-06-2006, 05:00 PM

If he has TT then you still have his two pair beat with trips :P

Bona · #6 10-06-2006, 05:00 PM

Yep I Misread the board. Thats -EV evry time. I better look again.

NIX · #7 10-06-2006, 05:01 PM

His PFR isn't terribly outrageous, although QT might be in his range. Certainly 99 is which may have just sucked out. T9s (K9s?) could have just found help.

I think I'd raise it hoping Villian paired the 9 or slowplayed a worse jack. If he 3bets, I'd call instead of 3betting though.

Bruce D · #8 10-06-2006, 05:04 PM

Depends what I have seen him do on the river. Without reads, I raise this.

With reads, that is, 'can he fold to a river raise?', I just call. IF he can fold, then a raise loses us more when we are behind, than we win when we are ahead.

Villian is likely trying to represent a straight made on the river. Is he any good? There is no reason to think that you would check behind on what seems like a disconnected board other than the gut shot that came in.

His raise with one limper suggests 99-TT, QQ+, AJ+. I don't see any of these hands acting this way. 99 would go for the checkraise no? Why is he scared of the check down? JJ is not possible. QQ-AA is not likely as there was no raise from him at anytime. I put villian on 99 or TT. There are only 3 ways to have 99 and 6 to have TT. If he has a whiffed AK or AQ, then you have even more ways to take his monies.

A raise to TT will get it to fold, as is likely AK or AQ and a raise to 99 will result in a 3 bet back to you in which case you are in a tough spot.

I call this and win up to 30 BB when I am ahead, but not less than 6 if we discount villian would act like this with the whiffed overcards, and lose 3 BB when I am behind to 99.

Bona · #9 10-06-2006, 05:11 PM

Ok this time I think I read the board better. 99 would make sense. Cant really be an overpair or you would have heard from him, same with AJ, KJ, a set of 8's or 3's. I don't think he raises QT preflop even suited. OK Im saying 99 if not he's the newest player on your buddy list.

milesdyson · #10 10-06-2006, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Depends what I have seen him do on the river. Without reads, I raise this...

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...A raise to TT will get it to fold, as is likely AK or AQ and a raise to 99 will result in a 3 bet back to you in which case you are in a tough spot.

I call this and win up to 30 BB when I am ahead, but not less than 6 if we discount villian would act like this with the whiffed overcards, and lose 3 BB when I am behind to 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am confused by your post bruce