100NL nut flush draw facing big bet- how to play?

Whitewash · #1 10-05-2006, 06:29 PM

Villain just entered the table about one round earlier, so I have no read on him and he has to have none on me.

What do you think his overbet represents? Do you see it as weakness and raise, call, or just wave the white flag and fold since the pot is still small?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($75.38)
Hero ($113.70)
UTG ($239.08)
MP ($106.50)
CO ($119.31)
Button ($90.71)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, Button calls $1, SB (poster) raises to $1.5, Hero calls $1, Button calls $1.

Flop: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $7, Hero???

bobman0330 · #2 10-05-2006, 06:44 PM

call, see what he does on the turn.

Novles · #3 10-05-2006, 07:59 PM

call

Solid_Shooter · #4 10-05-2006, 08:02 PM

Id call to see the turn with the nut flush draw.

Chomp · #5 10-05-2006, 09:05 PM

But is he paying us another penny if we hit our heart? Similarly is he paying if an A hits (and he doesn't have one too)?

If he doesn't justify our hopeful call later on, then surely calling can't be right on flop?

freehat · #6 10-05-2006, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But is he paying us another penny if we hit our heart? Similarly is he paying if an A hits (and he doesn't have one too)?

If he doesn't justify our hopeful call later on, then surely calling can't be right on flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think your opponent can see your cards? If he has a good hand of course he'll put more money in if we hit a heart, hell if he has nothing he might even BLUFF at it.

Chomp · #7 10-05-2006, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But is he paying us another penny if we hit our heart? Similarly is he paying if an A hits (and he doesn't have one too)?

If he doesn't justify our hopeful call later on, then surely calling can't be right on flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think your opponent can see your cards? If he has a good hand of course he'll put more money in if we hit a heart, hell if he has nothing he might even BLUFF at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well no of course not.

But I think he is most likely betting with a semi-decent hand here (his range has loads of Js and Ks in it) and he certainly looks to me to be scared of the hearts, so I don't think he's about to keep going if that heart comes.

What can happen?

We call, turn blank, he checks...do we try to steal?

We call, turn blank, he near-pots...do we call/raise?

We call, turn heart, he c/f.

We call, turn A, he checks...do we fire knowing AK and AJ are possible for him?

I just don't think it's worth it for the price we're being asked to pay.

bilbo-san · #8 10-05-2006, 09:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But is he paying us another penny if we hit our heart? Similarly is he paying if an A hits (and he doesn't have one too)?

If he doesn't justify our hopeful call later on, then surely calling can't be right on flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think your opponent can see your cards? If he has a good hand of course he'll put more money in if we hit a heart, hell if he has nothing he might even BLUFF at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well no of course not.

But I think he is most likely betting with a semi-decent hand here (his range has loads of Js and Ks in it) and he certainly looks to me to be scared of the hearts, so I don't think he's about to keep going if that heart comes.

What can happen?

We call, turn blank, he checks...do we try to steal?

We call, turn blank, he near-pots...do we call/raise?

We call, turn heart, he c/f.

We call, turn A, he checks...do we fire knowing AK and AJ are possible for him?

I just don't think it's worth it for the price we're being asked to pay.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are forgetting that if Villain checks the turn on a blank, we are getting very close to the correct price to play already.

On a flush turn, I probably check behind. He'll call a river bet (or bluff/block) very often if you do.

On a turn blank if he checks, I bet if I know this player enough to know that he isn't stack-a-donking often, that he folds bad made hands often to this bet, that he will call with weaker flush draws but won't won't bluff the river when they whiff, or any number of other factors.

On a turn A, I check 100% of the time if he checks, because now I REALLY don't want to get raised, and really want to call a river bet/bet myself if checked to.

Versus weaker made hands, you'll often see the river free, so your price is fine. Versus better made hands, villain isn't folding a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn, or folding the river often, so your price is fine. Combinatorially versus his range, calling is +EV. All of this would be a lot harder if we were OOP.

In short, position is the shiznitz. Use it.

Chomp · #9 10-05-2006, 09:44 PM

Yup, makes sense Bilbo. Cheers.

Caruso · #10 10-05-2006, 11:59 PM

from my experience usually such an overbet means a decent hand.
callig is bad imo, you got nothing but a flushdraw (plus an ace sometimes, but dont think youre ahead if you get that one) and you cant call an overbet on flop with just a flushdraw. im pretty sure he'd fire a 2nd barrel (because most times he WILL have a hand), so you are fooked those 38 out of 47 times your flush wont hit.
raising might be an option, because if he just calls you will most likely get a freecard on turn. otherwise if he'll shove youre fooked either, you cant call with a flushdraw.

so, figuring you face an overbet and only have a flushdraw headsup, i'd muck it. stack him those times he overbets into your nuts.