Action on flop and ugly turn with KK

lasa · #1 10-05-2006, 04:07 PM

Reads:
UTG 31.5/6.23/2.62 in 300ish hands. Knows how to raise people out of hand. Bets his good draws. Has taken couple bluffs too far.
UTG+1 42.6/5.4/0.5 in 130ish hands. Calls down top pair, didn't raise two pair earlier in quite safe board.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9.75BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero ???

I can't decide what to do here. Big pot, we might be ahead still but we might be drawing dead too.

sluttysteve · #2 10-05-2006, 04:34 PM

I can't really think of a hand that UTG has that you beat other than maybe QT or T8 diamonds. With UTG+1 around, and UTG's numbers, UTG should probably know that a bluff isn't going to work. I'd fold here.

Xhad · #3 10-05-2006, 04:52 PM

UTG's numbers are actually extremely aggro. I really wouldn't be surprised if he has a T and UTG1 has some kind of weak pair or draw. It makes me want to throw up, but I think this is a calldown. Obviously folding if UTG1 wakes up anywhere.

I really don't think that A changes a lot unless UTG had the NFD or AT.

shabamgoddam · #4 10-05-2006, 05:46 PM

i think you can fold comfortably here. by the turn all u beat that he might cap the flop w/ is QQ. if UTG capped w/ the the nut flush draw he hit his A and isn't goin anywhere, if he had AJ u is screwed on the turn, UTG+1 called the flop cap and the turn bet so he could have a draw or a set. heads up w/ UTG i'd call down, after UTG+1 calls the A turn I'd fold. I don't think its a weak line, i just think based on the action u ain't ahead of both, maybe 1.

Hielko · #5 10-05-2006, 05:54 PM

I don't think the turn card changed a lot, the only reasonable hand it helps is AJ. The question is; how aggro is villain after getting 3-bet on the flop? Most opponents I encouter will be quite honest, even the laggy ones, after you scream "I HAVE AN OVERPAIR OR BETTER". I think the turn is a fold, but if you have a read your opponent is capable of 3-betting or capping very light i would make the crying call down.

Xhad · #6 10-05-2006, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 called the flop cap and the turn bet so he could have a draw or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

shabamgoddam · #7 10-05-2006, 06:22 PM

uh, why no? what did i miss?

Hielko · #8 10-05-2006, 06:35 PM

I agree, this will be a set sometimes; but most players aren't going to try to slowplay when there is already a bet and a raise in front of them and there are a lot of draws on the board.

shabamgoddam · #9 10-05-2006, 06:37 PM

he did say UTG+1 called down w/ top 2

Xhad · #10 10-05-2006, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
uh, why no? what did i miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's had 3 chances to put in a postflop raise and refused every time, and it's already the turn so he's not waiting for the turn. A set isn't completely impossible but it should be the furthest thing from your mind right now.