Bodog baseball prop

livin_a_lie · #1 10-03-2006, 12:20 PM

For the minny/oak game they have 2 different HR props. The first is "Will the first HR in the game be 1,2,3, or 4 runs, or no HR during the game". The no HR is +135.

The 2nd prop is which player will hit the 1st HR, and lists a bunch of lines for different players and also no HR in the game. The no in this bet is +280.

So why such a big difference? I was confused so I of course had to bet the +280. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

knicknut · #2 10-03-2006, 01:28 PM

Well, Bodog isn't exactly the world's best at making up prop lines, but that's pretty funny.

Read the terms carefully about considering no action, but my guess is the different linesmakers that made it up were influenced by the number of options they put up. The second guy thought "wow, look at all those players--one of them must hit a home run!" and gave you better odds.

Other thoughts:
1. Can you bet 1-4 on the first bet to make an arbitrage?
2. Divide team HRs by team ABs, find their at bats per game, then do (1-ratio)^(AB/g) x (same for other team)

Assuming (a) they will performl ike average in this game and (b) at bats are uncorrelated, that's your odds of no home run the whole game.

Because pitching is better in the playoffs and results are correlated, this will increase the odds of it occuring even more.

My guess is your bet is good, but I'm to lazy to do the math.

knicknut · #3 10-03-2006, 01:33 PM

Well, doing some math, the odds seem to be about 8 to 1. Playoff conditions and batter correlation will help you, but I'm not sure this is +EV.

What are the other lines? What's the book hold %? (You can use the calculator on Pinnacle to find this.)

scorer · #4 10-03-2006, 01:40 PM

theres been a home run, i think in playoff games there will most certainly be a home run as your dealing with better teams.

Thremp · #5 10-03-2006, 01:42 PM

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theres been a home run, i think in playoff games there will most certainly be a home run as your dealing with better teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. This is not accurate.

livin_a_lie · #6 10-03-2006, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
theres been a home run, i think in playoff games there will most certainly be a home run as your dealing with better teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its just the opposite, playoff teams usually have very strong starting pitching.

Jibba · #7 10-03-2006, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
theres been a home run, i think in playoff games there will most certainly be a home run as your dealing with better teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its just the opposite, playoff teams usually have very strong starting pitching.

[/ QUOTE ]

Add in that it's Johan against Zito, who have a combined 51 HRs allowed in 454.2 innings pitched, and it's not a bad play.