Stud high late in MTT: (T9)89 vs. xxJQ

[betgo]

I am short stacked and we are ahort handed with 10 players left in $20 MTT. Final table pays. Should I call on 4th street and take another card, jam, or fold?

Tournament - 7 Card Stud High - Level XI (500/1,000), Ante 100, Bring-In 150 (converter)

Seat 1: 23,120
Seat 2: 1,447
Seat 4: 5,023
Seat 6: 16,415
Hero: 4,642

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises___calls

4th Street - (5.30 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ???

[durron597]

when you raised 3rd, did you realize that a jack and a 7 are dead? I wouldnt raise 3rd... i might even fold!

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
when you raised 3rd, did you realize that a jack and a 7 are dead? I wouldnt raise 3rd... i might even fold!

[/ QUOTE ]
This is short handed in a tournament, and I would like to steal the antes.

[Bartholow]

I think the ante steal attempt is good or at least defensible.

The question is certainly whether to continue on 4th. And the answer will be dependent on the actual payout structure and the stack sizes left in tourney. We need to know the stack sizes on the other table, which you should be watching at this point. We also need to know if seat 1 has been bullying with his big stack and trying to knock short stacks out, or is likely to have a legitimate hand. All these factors are probably more important than your hand/current equity/etc.

Given the usual style payouts in these things, just making the money is not near as good as finishing well. In order to do that, you're going to need to play some hands. You have about 40% equity against a pair of jacks here, your corrected odds if you try to get yourself all in end up being about 12-7, which is good enough barely. My guess is that if it's the usual top heavy prize distribution, and if the other table doesn't include a really tiny stack or two, you should play this hand in whatever way makes it most likely you'll get a fold at some point from your opponent. This might be just calling here and hoping to hit something scary on 5th (and hoping he was just playing his big stack and has something marginal that misses on 5th).

But again, we need to know payouts and stack sizes and any info about this big stack.

[cgrohman]

Fold 3rd to his re-raise if he is at all straight forward. Normally, I would want to continue on 4th, but your stack is really short.

[PoorLawyer]

It sure looks like he is bullying with the big stack. You have put in a good portion of your stack here already, so I guess the question is how pissed you are going to be if you bubbble out, or whether you want the chance to double up. If you call 4th I think the hand is tough to get away from here. Are you ITM right now? I may have passed altogether on the hand with your dead straight outs. You probably are not very far behind in the hand, if at all, so I really think it is a judgment call on whether he has been bullying, and if so do you want to risk it all on a marginal situation (against at least 2 overcards at best) or pick a better spot and hope to back into the final table in the mean time. If there were other real small stacks I might pass or even fold to the reraise on 3rd.

[betgo]

8th paid $150 and 1st $900, so there was some advantage to cashing. I was in 8th of 10. The small stacks tend to play weak/tight, so it was possible I could place like 6th without gaining a lot of chips.

I think the raise on 3rd was correct, as most people came in for raises, there were not many players to act, mostly lower cards showing, and I had 3 middle cards in addition to the somewhat dead straight draw.

I thought villain was bullying with a higher board and big stack. I raised 4th, he 3-bet, and I was allin on 5th street.

Villain had concealed kings. I was 39% against those cards, which was slightly better than the pot odds for the rest of my stack.

Villain made kings up and busted me. I felt like I had blown a likely cash, but after analysing what the odds were and this discussion, I think I played the hand correctly.

[Andy B]

I'm not one to advocate trying to sneak into the money, but the difference between $150 and zilch is pretty significant. I don't think that you should sit on your hands, but I also think that you should wait for a better hand. A couple of key cards are gone, and the big stack has the highest up-card. You might be looking for an all-in hand, but Ten-high ain't it. I also think you should have folded to the raise. Having called, fourth is a pretty easy call.

[betgo]

Yeh, I think the only thing questionable was playing the hand in the first place. I am only raising into 3 players though.

I think my raise was better than calling on 4th street. I am not going anywhere. If he is bluffing, I might get him to fold.

[RobbyD]

Fold on 3rd! Your bluff failed!