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  #1  
Old 09-29-2006, 11:44 PM
kimchi kimchi is offline
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Default Which hands should I expect to be losers?

Aside from utter rags, I think there must be a threshold of reasonable hands that a decent player should be able to turn a profit on.

From 6 max limit ($1/2 to 3/6), the following hands show a negative BB/100 in my PT DB (55K hands, 3.32BB/100). The list shows the number of hands, the BB/hand for the group, and the hands from that group with -BB/hand:

3200 pairs (0.83BB): 66 & 22

2200 Suited connectors (0.22BB): <76s & A2s

6300 Off-suited connectors (0.03BB): <98o & A2o

1700 Suited broadway (0.52BB): none

4800 Unsuited broadway (0.20BB): ATo, KTo

7700 Ax (0.19BB): ATo, A8o, A6o, A2

interstingly, my top 5 losers are all suited rags: 74s, 93s, Q5s, J7s, 84s. I spew 0.18BB/hand on each.

I think more of the above hands should have some value in them. Sample sizes for individual hands are obviously probably too small to draw any solid conclusions, but I think they can give a decent indication as to where my profits currently stop.

Results will be twisted by a few huge pots I've won:/ Eg - turning quad 5s against a wheel, 7-high straight and boat....and lost, such as set over set and boat over boat etc.

ATo and KTo have probably lost kicker battles several times, but I'm sure they still should be +EV hands. The same is true with the Ax hands.

Is there anyone with a really significantly sized DB that could post hands that lose them money that should be profitable? My 55k hands are OK for a general stat check but too small to look at individual hands.

So, which theoretically profitable hands do you spew money on?
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  #2  
Old 09-30-2006, 09:44 AM
slcseas slcseas is offline
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Default Re: Which hands should I expect to be losers?

[ QUOTE ]
interstingly, my top 5 losers are all suited rags: 74s, 93s, Q5s, J7s, 84s. I spew 0.18BB/hand on each.

[/ QUOTE ]
There is nothing interesting about this, it should be obvious. Rags are called rags for a reason. This should be the first leak you plug.
[ QUOTE ]
ATo and KTo have probably lost kicker battles several times, but I'm sure they still should be +EV hands. The same is true with the Ax hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
ATo, KTo, and Ax are chronic losers. In multi way pots like you play in limit you need hands that are draw friendly, these are not. Top pair rarely wins in limit games. Hands Like A6 and A7 have no straight draw, so you basically need to pair both the majority of the time. You may see better results if you only play these on the button.

Also, you can expect any hand that contains 2's and 3's to be long term losers, even with an Ace. The board will counterfeit them almost everytime they don't pair. That means 9 times out of 10 you are playing with one hole card, how profitable can that be?

From what I can see, with maybe the exception of 66 since we are talking limit, all of these hand should be long term losers. Time to consider removing them from what you consider to be playable hands.
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  #3  
Old 09-30-2006, 11:53 AM
Red_Diamond Red_Diamond is offline
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Default Re: Which hands should I expect to be losers?

AQ
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  #4  
Old 09-30-2006, 12:38 PM
BJK BJK is offline
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Default Re: Which hands should I expect to be losers?

[ QUOTE ]
ATo and KTo have probably lost kicker battles several times, but I'm sure they still should be +EV hands. The same is true with the Ax hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest hole I ever fixed in playing limit hold 'em was to stop playing A-rags in multi-way pots. It needs to be said over and over again. ATo UTG is a hand for the muck pile. AJo UTG is a hand for the muck pile. A2o through A9o? The only time they are playable is from late position (cutoff or the button) when there are no limpers, and then they need to be raised.

Suited A-rags are a different story simply because of their flush value, and that even makes a few suited K-rags and Q-rags playable in certain situations as well.

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anyone with a really significantly sized DB that could post hands that lose them money that should be profitable? My 55k hands are OK for a general stat check but too small to look at individual hands.

So, which theoretically profitable hands do you spew money on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've only got about 75,000 LHE hold 'em hands (several hundred thousand NL hands) in my current DB, and the one hand that is a huge hole for me (that I'm working on fixing) is QQ. It is the only pocket pair that is not profitable for me in LHE. My five most profitable hands, in order, are AA, KK, AKs, JJ, and AKo. I'm spewing a whopping 0.05 BB/100 with QQ.

On the other side of the fence, two hands that round out my top ten most profitable (in 9th and 10th place) are KJs and Q9s. The Q9s is easily explainable. I made a straight flush with it against an A-high flush (unpaired board) and got my opponent to put in 47 raises on the river, so that will skew the results a bit. The KJs has no explanation except for the fact that I've started to play it strong every once in a while because of the success I've had with it.
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  #5  
Old 10-01-2006, 03:57 AM
rakemeplz rakemeplz is offline
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Default Re: Which hands should I expect to be losers?

im guessing those sooooted rags would be your biggest losers cuz uve chased flush draws with those hands and lost...I dunno just a guess and prolly wrong.
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  #6  
Old 10-01-2006, 07:32 AM
PokrLikeItsProse PokrLikeItsProse is offline
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Default Re: Which hands should I expect to be losers?

I think that a good player will show a profit on ATo, but playing ATo every time it is dealt to you seems like a losing play.
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  #7  
Old 10-01-2006, 09:19 AM
kimchi kimchi is offline
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Default Re: Which hands should I expect to be losers?

[ QUOTE ]


From 6 max limit ($1/2 to 3/6

[/ QUOTE ]

ATo & KTo are very playable hands in shorthanded games where more pots are contested HU and any pair is often good enough. A-high wins it's fair share too.

I raise ATo from any position and will re-raise a limper. KTo is only an open raising hand from the cut-off to hopefully steal or play HU against the BB. I'll fold KTo against a limper usually.

I just think they should be profitable in 6 max games. Playing these hands or not isn't a huge leak. It's how you play them after the flop where the profit will be.

Any short-handed players get value from some of the hands I listed above? ATo, KTo, medium suited connectors and the like.

I won't play any medium/smaller suited connectors short handed unless there are at leats 2 previous limpers, and I'd rather play the crappy unsuited broadway cards against only the blinds.
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