NFL Week 4(YTD: 47-40-3, +51.7 units)

[Assani Fisher]

Week 1: 20-10(66.66%), +14 units on 64 units wagered, ROI of +21.9%

Week 2: 14-17-1(45%), -5 units on 66 units wagered, ROI of -7.5%

Week 3: 13-13-2(50%), +54 units on 101 units wagered, ROI of +54%

Year to Date: 47-40-3(54%) +64 units(not counting juice) on 231 units wagered, ROI of 27%
+51.7 units(counting juice) on 231 units wagered, ROI of 22%


Please note that all lines are taken from sportsbook.com at the time of this posting.


Indy -9 at NYJets, o/u 46.5
Its no secret that I'm high on the Jets this year. With that said, this is a tough game to pick because it is easy to envision a blowout. Nevertheless I'll stick with my preseason call and take the Jets. I say they keep the scoring low and cover the spread. Jets +9(2 units), under 46.5(1 unit)

SD -2.5 at Baltimore, o/u 33.5
Neither of these teams have played any real competition yet. I just don't understand why SD is favored on the road here though. Rivers has yet to see a quality defense. I think he'll struggle here. The Ravens will score a defensive TD. Balt +2.5(4 units), over 33.5(2 units)

Min +1 at Buf, o/u 34.5
Meh...tough game to call. I really do like Minnesota, but Buffalo isn't an easy place to play. Low scoring game. I think the experience of Brad Johnson pulls it out in the 4th quarter. Min +1(1 unit), under 34.5(1 unit)

Dallas -9.5 at Tenn, o/u 37
Too many points here. I was all over Tennessee last week, and I'll ride that streak. Tenn +9.5(4 units), over 37(1 unit)

SF +7 at KC, o/u 40.5
Another line that confuses me. KC has shown nothing this year. I know that they're coming off the bye week and KC is a tough place to play, but still. I'll go with SF. I like the over as we know SF can score and I think Larry Johnson will finally have a huge game. SF +7(2 units), over 40.5(2 units)

NO + 7 at Car, o/u 41.5
Emotional letdown? Nah...NO is simply a good team this year. This line was clearly made according to last year's results. New Orleans is too respectable to be getting a touchdown here. NO +7(3 units), over 41.5(1 unit)

Ariz +7 at Atl, o/u 41
Atlanta was just embarrassed on national TV. I think they blow Arizona out here. Warner has no confidence anymore and will fumble a few times against a good defense. I see something like a 27-7 win here. Atl -7(6 units), under 41(1 unit)

Mia -3.5 at Hous, o/u 40.5
Miami continues to live off of preseason hype. Last week I faded them heavily as they were a ridiculous 10 point favorite. And this week they are a 3.5 pt favorite on the road??? People, Miami is simply not that good of a team! Houston gets their first victory here. Hous +3.5(2 units), under 40.5(1 unit)

Det +5.5 at StL, o/u 43.5
Detroit just looks horrible. StL is a lot better at home as evidenced by them beating Denver. I very much like the Rams here. Both these teams have made additions on defense, so I like it to be lower scoring too. StL -5.5(5 units), under 43.5(1 unit)

NE +6 at Cincy, o/u 46.5
NE needs this game more than Cincy. When is the last time that NE didn't play well in a game they needed? It doesn't happen often. Cincy will have a bit of a letdown, and I wouldn't be surprised to see NE win this one striaght up. NE +6(1 unit), over 46.5(1 unit)

Jac -3 at Wash, o/u 34
I'm a big Redskins homer, but I think that Portis makes all the difference in the world. Big game for both teams, so it should be hard hitting and well coached. I think Washington shows everyone that they are for real this week. Wash +3(1 unit), under 34(1 unit)

Cle -2.5 at Oak, o/u 33.5
Oakland has had the bye week to prepare while Cleveland just lost a heart breaker and is banged up. Oakland isn't as horrible as people think. Randy Moss will blow up one of these weeks. Oak +2.5( 3 units), over 33.5(1 unit)

Seat +3.5 at Chi, o/u 34.5
Wow...great game here. Seattle has clearly shown to be much better at home than on the road. I really don't like that extra 1/2 point, but I'm going to go with Chicago. In a surprise, I think this will be a higher scoring game than people expect as well. Chi -3.5(1 unit), over 34.5(1 unit)

GB +11 at Philly, o/u 48
Brett Favre on MNF? I could easily see him coming up huge. Or I could easily see Philly getting up 3 TDs and then GB playing hard until the end and covering by scoring meaningless points late. 11 points is a lot and the Eagles still have beaten nobody this year. GB +11(3 units), over 48(1 unit)


There you have it. Best of luck to everyone this week!

[BobJoeJim]

No 55 unit play of the week this time?

Oh well, best of luck anyway!

[Thremp]

For reference... I see three of your picks that you calc juice for incorrectly. Which is why $1 bets would be better... and the fact that YOU STILL DON'T BET YOUR PICKS.

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
For reference... I see three of your picks that you calc juice for incorrectly. Which is why $1 bets would be better... and the fact that YOU STILL DON'T BET YOUR PICKS.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do indeed bet my picks. I've told you this in at least 3 threads by now. For the record, I didn't bet my picks in week 1. Then a ton of people jumped on me for it. Performify came to my defense saying:

[ QUOTE ]
Assani,

Please continue posting. These are your picks, and you're welcome to post your picks and analysis every week, regardless of if you're playing them or not. This forum would be better if we had more people posting analysis of their picks, regardless of how many units they were playing. I'll take a guy playing a dollar a bet who is putting thought in to each pick and discussing them (and participating in discussion) over someone betting 1k units and just listing three picks each week, no explanation

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agreed with him, I didn't want any cloud hanging over my head so I started betting these games with a friend. EVERY SINGLE GAME THAT I POST I DO INDEED WAGER ON AT THE EXACT NUMBER OF UNITS IN WHICH I POST. I don't know how much clearer I could say it that this. Please leave me alone about it now. Thank you.

[Thremp]

You said you bet your games through a friend who pays 1-1. WTF kind of ridiculous ass lie is that?

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
You said you bet your games through a friend who pays 1-1. WTF kind of ridiculous ass lie is that?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is rather silly that I'm defending this point WHEN THE MOD ALREADY TOLD ME THAT IT WAS FINE TO POST PICKS WITHOUT BETTING, but whatever.

I have a friend Anthony who likes sports betting, so each week I send him the link to my threads so he can see my picks. He doesn't post here because he doesn't play poker, but if you really would like it I can have him set up an account JUST FOR YOU! Here is how our conversation went basically:

Him: Wow, so whats with everyone getting so bent out of shape about you not actually betting on your picks?

Me: I have no clue, but I'm tired of it so I'm just going to set up an account and bet $1 each unit.

Him: LOL...just bet with me dude. I could care less about $1, and that way you'd get them off your back.

Me: Ok.



But whatever...don't believe me. I don't really care. I'm through with this issue. I went out of my way to bet on these games just to satisfy you. As of now, I'm through with this issue. Please don't bother responding in any of my threads anymore, as I will NEVER answer you again on this issue except for referencing this post here.

[Freerollin`]

I've criticized AF previously for his failure to acknowledge that he didn't bet his own picks. Since then, I've realized it was a dumb criticism and a waste of my time.

He's also corrected his "vigless" results, though he may have made mistakes doing it - which everyone did when they started.

As a previously guilty party to the criticisms of Assani's posting, these arguments have grown tiresome. People can and will come to their own conclusions regarding whether they'll follow him or not. His posting picks are not affecting any of the rest of us.

[thomastem]

Assani,

Sir this is great stuff, but what I'd really like to know is if you are actually betting these picks. Are they the exact units that you post? Do you bet with a sportsbook or a friend? If you bet with a friend is his name Anthony? Can I be your friend?

[Assani Fisher]

Freerollin', thanks for seeing that I've tried my best to accomodate everyone. Honestly I couldn't care less about any of this- I just want to discuss football games! Curious though...what mistakes have I made with the vig?

[Freerollin`]

[ QUOTE ]
Freerollin', thanks for seeing that I've tried my best to accomodate everyone. Honestly I couldn't care less about any of this- I just want to discuss football games! Curious though...what mistakes have I made with the vig?

[/ QUOTE ]


I just edited my post to read "may have made mistakes," I don't know why I automatically thought you did when Thremp said so. Sorry.