What is the worst possible shape for the nuts to be in on the flop?

[KSOT]

This was the biggest gap in percentages I could find.

On a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flop:

5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 78.66%
5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 21.34%

Surprisingly, this wrap + flush draw has a better chance than top set + flush draw + open ended straight draw.

BTW, this was the worst situation I could come up with for top set.

On a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flop:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 67.20%
T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 32.80%

Can anyone beat that? Admittedly I didn't try for very long.

http://simulator.pokertips.org/simulator.php

[wazz]

In the first hand there are only 8 effective blanks on the turn, the others give another possible flush draw. It is possible to have it in >10% worse shape though if it is being freerolled:

On the same board:
5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - 11.5%
4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 88.5%

It's more interesting to do it for the turn card though IMO. I'm sure everyone knows the holdem hand where you can be a favourite there even though you're behind - KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board, your opponent on a pair of ducks.

I think that a similar situation would be top two pair vs an overpair with a semi-wrap. On a 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] j [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] board:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 30%
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 70%

Even top set with a oesredraw there is still an underdog:

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 45%
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 55%

Again the nut straight is in most trouble when being freerolled: but this post has taken long enough and someone else can do that.

[PLOlover]

Well being freerolled on when u flop straight with no/dominated redraws would be the worst cause you can't win.

[KSOT]

I was more thinking nuts vs non-nuts, but yeah, freerolling situations would definitely be worse.

[Silent A]

I posted this once in another thread:

Hero drawing dead with the nuts on the turn ...

Board : 5 6 T J

Hero: JJ55
Vill 1: 3457
Vill 2: 9JQK
Vill 3: 66TT

[PokerBot123]

It is possible to be 0% with nuts on flop, but it obviously require more then 1 villain.