NL25 - Tough Turn Decision with Overpair (77)

[666shooter]

Only 5 hands played with MP2 to this point. I haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary. I played one hand with him where I raised to $1 pre-flop with KJo on the button, he (BB) and the SB called, I hit top pair (9hKsTc), bet the pot, he folded.

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($16.90)
BB ($10.00)
UTG ($19.40)
UTG+1 ($30.00)
MP1 ($22.75)
MP2 ($30.05)
Hero ($54.38)
Button ($3.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $1</font>, Hero calls $1, Button calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

I figure this is pretty standard.

Flop: ($3.35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $2.6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, Button folds, MP2 calls $3.40.

Does this raise look OK here?

Turn: ($15.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $14</font>, Hero ????

This is the first big bet I've seen from this guy since he sat down at the table. I seriously doubt he has fives so I wonder if he has the better overpair or just two overcards.

What next? If this seems standard I'm sorry in advance, I haven't been playing much recently.

[Dan Bitel]

As played, fold, but don't raise the flop

[kbinder]

If you are raising the flop to take it down, you need bet more. If villain was semi-bluffing with a good draw (8+ outs), he has good odds to call your raise. I really don't like raising this flop.

As played, turn is an easy fold.

[666shooter]

Thanks guys, the advice is very much appreciated.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
As played, fold, but don't raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

What about raising more? It seems to me like we've got the best hand but we're very vulnerable, and wouldn't mind just taking it down here.

[Bonesy]

I'm with Redd here. I'm not understanding why we don't raise the flop. Please elaborate if you can as I think this would help me a lot with other similar flops that we frequently see. Thanks.

[machine]

I raise this flop to, how many pots are we gonna get pushed off of on the turn if we just call here?

[Dan Bitel]

We don't raise the flop because worse hands fold and better ones call/raise.

Not just this, but at SSNL most players cbet, but no1 ever 2 barrels. So if he checks to you on teh turn, your hand is nearly always best, if he bets, its likey not

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
We don't raise the flop because worse hands fold and better ones call/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beyond that, while you technically have an overpair, it's really a pretty [censored] overpair. There are exactly two pocket pairs that you're ahead of on the flop, and zero on the turn. Since these are likely to make up a hefty chunk of the UTG raiser's range, I wouldn't really be very confident in my holding at all.

[Happy Time Harry]

You got a good flop for your PP but with the turn and villains almost-PSB I think you have to fold this. A call is marginal at best and you're probably up against a bigger PP. I think you're right about villain not having a 5, but you can't discount it outright. $25NL usually plays pretty straight forward, so I'm folding.