Foxwoods $20/$40

[party36master]

UTG plays any two (roughly 90% of hands)
MP1 is too loose pre-flop, but reads cards well and plays ok postflop
MP3 is average player

Hero is in MP2 w/AA (including A diamonds)

3 limpers to me, I raise w/AA, MP3 3 bets, we lose 1 limper, I cap.
4 players to flop, 18 small bets.

Flop: Q, 6, 4 rainbow

I bet, MP3 raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls.
1) call and check-raise turn, or go to 3 town?
I call.

4 players to turn, 13 big bets
Turn: 7, second diamond
2) go through w/the plan to checkraise, or lead out due to the multiple weak draws, and not wanting it checked around?

check to me, I bet, MP3 calls, UTG calls, MP1 raises
3) call or fold? I call, getting 18:1 w/expectation of 2 callers on the turn, and can pick up 2 bets on river if I hit one of my 2 clean outs.

[vmacosta]

I would pound the hell out of that flop. And I'm almost always going to showdown here--this hand should have been really simple and standard.

[gamblore99]

I would checkraise the turn. I think you are probably beat when checkraised by MP1 but its such a huge pot. Go to showdown.

[citizenwind]

3-bet flop. charge three players while you think you are ahead.

[private joker]

This is a fairly dry flop, which should mean 3-bet with your overpair almost all the time. Only on a coordinated board should you call and blast people out on the turn. I don't like the flop flat-call.

[colgin]

I would just three-bet the flop here and keep the gas on.

MP1's turn check-raise of the entire field does not bode well for you. Take the following range:

35s/58s -- 8 combos; 0 outs
67s -- 4 combos; 8 puts
66 -- 3 combos; 2 outs
44 -- 3 combos; 2 outs
77 -- 3 combos; 2 outs

That leaves you with a weighted avergae of 2.38 outs against this range. Given the additional players I think the possibility of implied odds outweigh the risk of negative implied odds, so I think you can call the turn getting 18:1. However,I would fold unimproved if MP1 fires into a protected pot on the river.

[MattiasL]

Just 3bet the flop. You are in the wrong relative position to be able to protect your hand with a c/r on the turn, so just bet for value and pray for your aces to hold up.

The turn checkraise looks very bad for you if MP1 is a reasonable player. The betting sequence on the flop makes it attractive for him to wait for the turn with 66 or 44.

I think a set is more probable than a two pair on this board. How loose is he preflop? Will he really see the flop (with that betting sequence) with low unsuited hands or trash like Q7? If not, then we are basically hoping for 67s (when we have outs), or an aggressive play with 45dd/56dd. This is only a few specific hands. And if we put the straights in his range, our average number of outs are cut again.

I guess a straight flush draw (56dd or 45dd) might be possible depending on the suits on the board and how he plays.

I would call getting 18:1, but the river is difficult if he keeps betting. Do we call if the board pairs or just hope he would not bet a counterfeited two pair?

[MattiasL]

[ QUOTE ]

35s/58s -- 8 combos; 0 outs
67s -- 4 combos; 8 puts
66 -- 3 combos; 2 outs
44 -- 3 combos; 2 outs
77 -- 3 combos; 2 outs


[/ QUOTE ]
35 + 58 (preflop) and 77 (flop) can be discounted. This improves our situation, which is good.

But 67s is only 2 or 3 hands (depending on if the 6 was the second diamond). This is bad.

And you might hope for being ahead against an aggressive 45dd or 56dd (both may not be possible). A bit improbable, but lets put it in the "good" column anyway.

Not sure what the net effect of all this is when we count our chances of winning the pot...

[party36master]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost always going to showdown here

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how I can call a river bet, unless the board pairs or I hit my A.

River 3, no diamond.
UTG bets, MP1 screams and calls, there is no way I can call, not even getting 21:1.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost always going to showdown here

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how I can call a river bet, unless the board pairs or I hit my A.

River 3, no diamond.
UTG bets, MP1 screams and calls, there is no way I can call, not even getting 21:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's a particularly bad sequence, so I won't blame you for folding. But in general we should not be looking for reasons to fold aces on any street for one more BB in a pot of this size. FWIW, I'd probably still call on the river you described and not feel real bad about it. Even live players do stupid/courageous crap and folding the best hand in a pot of this magnitude will likely ruin (or at best end) the rest of the session for you.