KQ, top pair, turn fold

Redeye · #1 09-26-2006, 10:27 PM

UTG+1 is a decent TAG. He doesn't seem to get out of line against me, and we have played about 400 hands against one another. I think he recognizes me as a TAG and doesn't get to crazy against me with out a hand. SB is unknown.

I need to start working more on play against better players (TAG ans LAGs), because I think that is somewhat of a weak spot in my game.

This is pretty standard, no?

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, SB calls, Hero folds.

sharpie · #2 09-26-2006, 10:35 PM

I don't like it because he could easily be pumping a huge draw, or a draw with a pair. AKh, AJh, KJh, ATh, KTh, JTh etc. He could also hold QJ, and you split with KQ.

CarpeDiem · #3 09-26-2006, 10:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it because he could easily be pumping a huge draw, or a draw with a pair. AKh, AJh, KJh, ATh, KTh, JTh etc. He could also hold QJ, and you split with KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Redeye · #4 09-26-2006, 10:45 PM

I think the likelyhood of QJ and KQ are low here. I'm not sure that this player is 3betting those in this spot. (I personally don't think it is a good play with those hands since you often will not have the equity edge in this particular situation.)

Do you think that the TAG still bets the turn here though? I called the flop because of the possible draws he could be pumping. But With a SB calling two cold and another tight player calling, can villain really want to bet a draw again on the turn?

One final point, and I'm not sure that it is worth anything. Villian did pause for a second before 3betting. (blah blah timing tells...). This made me think that there was some slightly lower chance that he was pumping a big draw and instead trying to decide how to protect a somewhat vulnerable hand. Or said another way, how to best maximize an over pair or TPTK type hand. This in conjunciton with a turn bet into two players who called the flop made me think it unlikely he had a big draw and more likely he had AA-QQ, TT or AQ.

However, with all of this, I still obviously am not sure I was right to fold, which is why I posted it. I just thought I would elaborate on the hand a bit.

Pepsquad · #5 09-27-2006, 12:07 AM

In your position, I call the flop intending to 3-bet/cap. If UTG+1 cold-calls I'll be raising the safe turn and folding to the 3-bet. The hand would play much differently.

bobhalford · #6 09-27-2006, 12:53 AM

I call down. Anyway, if he has AA, you have 5 outs. Folding the way you did is too weak IMO.

Redeye · #7 09-27-2006, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call down. Anyway, if he has AA, you have 5 outs. Folding the way you did is too weak IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I can see the argument for calling down. Against a more laggy player, there is no doubt.

Are you folding the river UI if UTG+1 bets the river or are you calling if he bets into two players (regardless of an overcall)? I cannot imagine a decent TAG firing a 3rd barrel into two players on the river in this spot with a missed draw, ever.

If people are in the TAGs shoes, do you consider this standard play?:

1) 3betting the flop in a pot with a draw where you could isolate yourself against another TAG (Hero) who has a hand 75%+ here? Your equity against bets going in may not be bad HU against the TAG, but you may make more money by letting the other player call or possibly 3-bet trapping the TAG for another bet.

2) Betting on the turn w/ a draw where you have gotten called by two players (1 called two cold and the other is likely to have atleast a pair).

1 and 2 led me to believe that the chance villian had AA-QQ, JJ, AQ was a fair amount more likely than him having a huge draw. Also, even if villian is drawing some small % of the time, it will be a huge draw where I will still lose some % of the time.

If I call because I think villian is aggressive enough to make the above two plays with a draw, or because I can draw out on AA, will I call a river bet? Is villian likely to fire a 3rd barrel into two players, one of whom is still very likely to have a hand with a busted draw? Do I call a bet here?

If my tun call is forcing me to call a river bet often unimproved, I must be playing against a draw that much more often.

Even arguing that my fold isn't bad, I am not convinced it is the right play. This time villian (TAG) turned out to have AQ, which at the time is what the hand felt like to me. However, I don't want to be results oriented and it is possible that for every AQ he has something like AKh or AJh, or whatever. Also, SBs call on the turn is padding the pot, so even if the TAG having a draw is less likely, SB is making this pot bigger and my call all the more correct.

Should I have chosen a different turn line? How about a turn donk-fold to try and prevent the free card?

Solid_p · #8 09-28-2006, 05:31 AM

I think you probably threw away the best hand. There's a large number of hands that he could play like this. I cap the flop and lead the turn.

TheGunner · #9 09-28-2006, 05:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it because he could easily be pumping a huge draw, or a draw with a pair. AKh, AJh, KJh, ATh, KTh, JTh etc. He could also hold QJ, and you split with KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everything is possible. But it's about the chance you are behind.

That chance is huge in this situation, since he seems to be a decent TAG. It's certainly not terrible to fold here. It's also not terrible to call down.

TheMetetron · #10 09-28-2006, 06:18 AM

Dude that's bad. I would have a shitton of hands right there that you beat.