2nd nuts in a huge pot. River decision?

five · #1 09-25-2006, 08:10 AM

2/4 Limit Holdem Ring game

The preflop raiser/capper is a decent TAG.
BB and BTN are likely thinking, "big pot lets get lucky!" Both are 55/12 types with wtsd around 38-40 after 250 hands.
UTG+1 is a 50/30/2 dude, who you recognize from another site. He ran hot there, and wrecked you pretty bad.

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (20SB, 5 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (18.5BB, 4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG folds.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (25.5BB, 3 players)

What's the plan?

TheGunner · #2 09-25-2006, 08:15 AM

Donk/call. Fold if it gets 2 back to you.

Nfinity · #3 09-25-2006, 08:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Donk/call. Fold if it gets 2 back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very close between Checking and calling and Check-Raising. Folding is definetely not an option.

TheGunner · #4 09-25-2006, 08:25 AM

You want to risk this getting checked through?

Nfinity · #5 09-25-2006, 08:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You want to risk this getting checked through?

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be right, but there are 4 players to this river and UTG+1 has been aggressive every step of the way. If nobody has anything worth betting here, then we are in a Reverse Implied odds situation by betting ourselves.

I don't know, someone might convince me. I still stand behind the folding not being an option though. Ever.

five · #6 09-25-2006, 08:45 AM

Obviously folding is not a choice here. But do we bet/call or check/call? What concepts are in play that factor into this decision?

five · #7 09-25-2006, 08:51 AM

Also, can you try to read their hands? Or is it an exercise in futility since they are so loose?

Nfinity · #8 09-25-2006, 09:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously folding is not a choice here. But do we bet/call or check/call? What concepts are in play that factor into this decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

Factors involved in this hand:

If we check and UTG+1(or anyone really) bets we don't want to raise with the second nuts because we fold out players making crying calls with worse hands, and they will 3-bet the nuts. However it's a huge pot and people will be more inclined to call with the other broadways of the suit.

If we bet we telegraph our hand to the table, god and country, now people are less inclined to call with weak diamonds/ no diamond, and we are only getting raised by the nuts or close to it, (Q or J). Even if these hands are in the raising range it cuts out the people who would call 1 bet but not 2.

Verde · #9 09-25-2006, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You might be right, but there are 4 players to this river

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, 3 players to the river. There is a 49% chance that none of them holds a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. But then again UTG+1 played his hand like many players would play a flush. He called a raise from UTG and you have the king [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] which makes it more likely for him to have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] perhaps with a weak kicker then Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He could also have a set still I don't think your going to see this river getting checked very often. I like check calling best.

jessie · #10 09-25-2006, 09:42 AM

UTG+1 came alive on the turn - so A4, a couple of diamonds, or 55 are possible.

In any event I would c/c the river. I'm certain UTG+1 is going to bet - he liked the turn. Since he has wrecked you pretty bad lately I wouldn't want give him the chance to raise you with the Ad.

jessie