Turn decision WCOOP $1050

PrayingMantis · #1 09-24-2006, 09:13 PM

UTG's PF range here is very small IMO. big pairs, AK.
Post flop (after the call) it is obviously narrower.

I have 12K, he covers.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
(Ante: t25)
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises to t700, 7 folds, Hero calls t400 (pot was t1375).

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t1775, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t900, Hero raises to t2700, UTG calls t1800 (pot was t5375).

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t7175, 2 players)

Your move?

Edit: I wasn't getting out of line recently in this event.

RStMartin · #2 09-24-2006, 09:18 PM

Just me, but I woulda pushed the flop

mornelth · #3 09-24-2006, 09:21 PM

My line on the flop would be to bet ~1100 and push over any raise. Makes this pot a lot easier to play and it is putting our opponent to a decision without great pot odds.

As played - you're [censored]. If he liked his hand on the flop - he still likes it. You still have a ton of outs and hopefully you're not up against A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]... Your stack size makes this a push on the turn IMHO.

PrayingMantis · #4 09-24-2006, 09:29 PM

Yes i would often bet out the flop here. A different line is to c/r more, in order to commit him and not just call. I think if he has AK c/r is probably better as he is folding if I bet out, and he bet folds AK here in position, so I win more. And me c/ring him also gives him the opportunity to come back over the top with big pairs, of course, if he feels I'm being tricky with some marginal hand.

PrayingMantis · #5 09-24-2006, 09:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your stack size makes this a push on the turn IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also you realize that the 2 on the turn is a very bad card for me.

gobboboy · #6 09-24-2006, 09:38 PM

Why? Because if he has a boat you're drawing dead? Pretty sure you were getting called anyway if he had a set. Your check/raise on the flop was tiny. Make it 4k to go. Sets up a turn shove much better.

PrayingMantis · #7 09-24-2006, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Because if he has a boat you're drawing dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, of course not. It's because there are fewer ways for me to have a set here, and if I have 54 he is ahead now, and if I did have a big hand that got bigger on the turn a shove doesn't really represent that very well. Of course - this is all from his perspective. If the turn is not pairing the board much bigger chance that he folds a big pair if I put pressure.

I agree about the c/r being too small. Although a smaller c/r might induce him to RR me more than a bigger one.

mornelth · #8 09-24-2006, 09:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your stack size makes this a push on the turn IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also you realize that the 2 on the turn is a very bad card for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's why I said -
[ QUOTE ]
If he liked his hand on the flop - he still likes it

[/ QUOTE ]

PrayingMantis · #9 09-24-2006, 10:48 PM

OK let's make it a bit more interesting.

Assume that if I push turn he always calls JJ-AA (if I bet less he raises all-in and I'm commited anyway) and if I check he checks behind these hands. These are very reasonable assumptions, including the assumptions about his range.

How about checking vs. pushing?

sccrneo · #10 09-24-2006, 11:00 PM

If he is always checking behind with those hands, then I think this is a check. You are only 3:1 to improve(assuming your K outs are good) and if you push you are getting slightly less than 2:1. From your read, it sounds like that might be about his range here so I think a check is the best option based on your assumptinos.