Just getting started

[Nightbrace]

Its been a good 2 months since I've been able to play. Would it be a good idea, besides re-reading SSH, to play smaller limits for awhile until I get my bankroll up to 300 BB?? I have about 150 BB to spare currently until my bonus clears, spent the last 3 days working on it, I made a small dent, but have aways to go. After 7,910 hands since restarting, I am at 2.22 BB/100. Before my absense, after 27,817 hands, I was at 2.78 BB/100.

I know its hard to draw any conclusions based on the small sample size since restarting, but was wondering what some of your thoughts are getting back to playing after a relatively extended absense from play.

[Magellan]

Not sure, have you forgotten how to play?

Seems to me that if you're winning 2.22BB, through positive variance or legendary play, there's not much reason to drop a limit. If you start running crap and need to boost your confidence then stop, drop & roll.

[k000k]

the RoR formula is:

exp(-2*(win rate)*(bankroll)/variance)

so, give a scenario thats probably worse off than you really are, assuming a high std. deviation of 20bb/100 (variance=std.dev^2=400), and 2bb/100 win rate:

exp(-2*2*150/400)
exp(-1.5)
.22

And here's a better case scenario, assuming 2.5bb/100 WR and a low 15bb/100 std dev:
exp(-2.9333)
.05

You're probably in the middle somewhere, your RoR is probably about 10-15%. 150 bets is not a lot of bets, if you drop a limit and increase that to 300bb:

upper bound:
exp(-2*2*300/400)
exp(-3)
.05

lower bound:
exp(-5.8666)
.0028

You can get around 2-3% instead of 10-15%. Dropping a limit would make you 5 times less likely to bust.

[thelyingthief]

how do you determine your variance/std.dev? do i needs must export all my hands to excel and obtain it that way? and what is exp? e?

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you determine your variance/std.dev? do i needs must export all my hands to excel and obtain it that way? and what is exp? e?


[/ QUOTE ]

Std deviation is a stat pokertracker keeps on you. You can find it in Session Notes / More Detail. You could calculate it yourself if you want to, but it's not very fun..

exp is the function e^x, e (2.718281828459..) to the xth power.

If youre using std deviation per 100 hands, then you must use bb/100 win rate. If using std dev per hour, use bb/hr win rate. Your units must all be the same.

[Nightbrace]

Thanks for the information, I'll check into my standard deviation and check back, I am just hoping I make it through this bonus ahead, and then my bankroll will warrant staying at these limits.

[Nightbrace]

Standard deviation is $16.7553 /100 Hands

[thelyingthief]

thank you very much, k00k.