#1
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Can anyone explain this??
Two Dimes gives the following match up
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Js Jc Ah 337173 67.43 162106 32.42 721 0.14 0.675 Qs Ts Kd Jd 162106 32.42 337173 67.43 721 0.14 0.325 This looks OK. But if you now add in the hand 6s 2s 5c 4c you get cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Js Jc Ah 153617 30.72 345585 69.12 798 0.16 0.308 Qs Ts Kd Jd 163978 32.80 335224 67.04 798 0.16 0.329 6s 2s 5c 4c 181607 36.32 318393 63.68 0 0.00 0.363 with the addition of the 2456 hand, the TJQK hand now wins more in absolute terms: instead of 32.5% he now wins 32.9%. As far as I can see this is simply impossible. Of course your relative chances (ie equity) can improve with the addition of another hand but surely you cannot suddenly win win more pots (??). To me this feels like a mathematical impossibility. Can anyone explain?? |
#2
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Re: Can anyone explain this??
its a pretty small increase: My guess, by adding two more
spades by the new hand, flushes hit slightly less often. Therefore, broadway hand loses to that flush less often, ergo winning more hands. |
#3
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Re: Can anyone explain this??
OK. But surely the broadway hand must now suddenly also lose a lot of hands that it was winning before, eg when the club flush comes (amongst others). Surely this must hugely outweigh any tiny increase from a couple of spades being out.
What I don't get - in general - is why the addition of 2456 completely trashes the AAJJ hand but actually helps the broadway hand. It just looks odd. |
#4
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Re: Can anyone explain this??
[ QUOTE ]
OK. But surely the broadway hand must now suddenly also lose a lot of hands that it was winning before, eg when the club flush comes [/ QUOTE ] Huh ? The broadway hand wasn't winning when clubs were coming except of the marginal cases were str8 was also coming. In fact, there's only a few hands winning for the broadway that are trashed by 2456 (those where broadway made two pairs and where 2456 hits a str8 or a flush). That seems to be more than compensated by the decreased possibilty of spades coming out. |
#5
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Re: Can anyone explain this??
Theres a better chance of cards that help the KQJT coming because 4 cards that are useless on the flop are now in someone's hand. It's only .4%
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#6
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Re: Can anyone explain this??
[ QUOTE ]
Theres a better chance of cards that help the KQJT coming because 4 cards that are useless on the flop are now in someone's hand. It's only .4% [/ QUOTE ] This is correct, if you just take the 2456 out of the deck instead the KQJT hand's equity increases a lot more: pokenum -mc 500000 -o as js jc ah - qs ts kd jd / 6s 2s 5c 4c Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Js Jc Ah 304459 60.89 194481 38.90 1060 0.21 0.610 Qs Ts Kd Jd 194481 38.90 304459 60.89 1060 0.21 0.390 When you make the 2456 an extra live hand instead, it has 36% equity in the pot. About 4/5 of this is from pots that the AA would have won, and the other 1/5 is what drags the KQJT's equity down from 39% to 32%. |
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