Market Update 9/21/06

[dibsy]

Guys - let me know if you find a short market update to be helpful.. we can open it up to discussion on current daily events..

Equities fell sharply in the afternoon following data on manufacturing output. Further stoking investors' concerns over reduced output growth, the Philadelphia FRB released a report showing regional manufacturing unchanged to lower in September. The Fed Funds futures market responded to the data release with futures now indicating a 0% chance of a 25bp hike in October and a 6% chance of a 25bp easing in December. Oil rallied on the day, regaining some of yesterday's losses, to end the day at $61.04. Treasuries rallied strongly, following today's data releases, at the prospect of a prolonged Fed pause or the beginning of monetary easing. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the day down 9bp (and down 17bp from Tuesday) to 4.64% - its lowest level since March.

Amaranth Advisors LLC, the Greenwich-based hedge fund that has failed as a result of natural gas speculation, has raised the estimated loss of value to $6bn amidst the deep-discounted sale of positions to Citadel Investment Group LLC and JPMorgan Chase. Citigroup is in talks about buying a stake in the biggest hedge fund to fail since Long Term Capital Management's demise during the Russian debt default crisis in 1998. The HP saga now has the SEC requesting information as California's Attorney General has complained the company has stopped providing him information.

US Treasuries at 8am
5-year 4.70%
10-year 4.73%
30-year 4.85%

US Treasuries at 5pm
5-year 4.58%
10-year 4.64%
30-year 4.78%

Equities at Close
DJIA 11533 [-80pts, -0.69%]
S&P 500 1318 [-7 pts, -0.54%]
Nasdaq 2238 [-15 pts, -0.67%]

[RedJoker]

Hi Dibsy,

Yes; a daily update like this could prove useful.

A couple of suggestions; I think you need to clarify/explain certain points, make it readable to a layman. Also, maybe you could give your opinions on what effect various events will have on the market or the economy, that way there is something to debate.

Obviously you won't be right every time but at least there can be a discussion and something for everyone to learn from.

I've only just spotted this thread, are you going to give an update for friday or have you been dissuaded by lack of responses?

[pig4bill]

Amaranth hasn't failed yet. They're continuing to operate, and hope to stay in business.

[dibsy]

Ok I will restart this..

@pig4bill: you are correct - even though they lost over 6 bln (60% of fund), they have not failed yet, and they "plan to stay in business"...