Pushing a %1 advantage lol

kurto · #1 09-21-2006, 03:38 PM

Though people may argue that +EV is +EV, I'm having trouble accepting that small edges are worth pushing. (and I do mean small)

Villain - typical bad $25 player calling station. I've seen him call down reraise with Top Pair with a 6 kicker. (J6 vs JK)

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the SB and complete after 1 or 2 limpers. BB (villain checks)

Flop 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check... villain bets pot, folds to me, I checkraise to 3x pot, he raises again and I push.

I am more then willing to bet I know his hand. TP ANY kicker. My hand has reverse implied odds because though he's an idiot I don't believe if the obvious draw gets there I'll get paid. (If I get trip 8s, he probably pays me... an ace probably slows him down) So, calling is probably not a possibility. All my +equity is on the flop with two cards to come. So, I feel like my options are push or fold.

When you have almost 0% fold equity... isn't the better play to give these pots away when they'll certainly call the same bets when you have a much greater edge?

Just curious. (for the sake of this question, assume I'm correct on my read and I definitely have a very small edge.)

The reason I ask this is results based in the sense that I realize that I'm making easy money as a significant favorite and then losing my profit for the night pushing small edges.

carnivalhobo · #2 09-21-2006, 03:48 PM

daily wins and losses dont matter, its one long session.

you are ahead of top pair (as long as he doesnt have AJ), and there is dead money in the pot, so pushing here has was more EV than +1 here i would imagine. Your equity can be less than 50, but the expectation still positive due to pot odds.

True · #3 09-21-2006, 03:51 PM

standard....

True

Jay Riall · #4 09-21-2006, 03:52 PM

I'm not really sure if this is applicable, but SNG players make thier living from frequently pushing +0.3% edges or smaller.

avfletch · #5 09-21-2006, 03:55 PM

1. There is already money in the pot so you're taking a coin flip with an overlay.

2. Don't try for a ragged check/raise lead out for pot and look for a decent 3bet/shove that will have some fold equity. So now you are only flipping *if* he calls and even so there is an overlay.

kurto · #6 09-21-2006, 04:25 PM

My point is... it seems counterintuitive to me to press situations which amount to a coin flip when they will gladly call the same bets when you have a more significant edge.

Certainly over the course of 1000s of hands, if you run statistically even you will eek out a profit. But with due to variance, you will find yourself in a position of having to catch up until reach the positive side of variance.

Meanwhile-- you can get the same players chips with a better equity edge. It just seems to me like there must be an advantage against calling stations to not play huge pots with such minor edges when you can get the same money (and not put yourself in a position to play catch up.)

True · #7 09-21-2006, 04:30 PM

lol...

coinflip + overlay bro....

EV of folding is way way worse than EV of pushing / calling.

Variance might be less, but why would you wanna take a long run decision that decreases your earn?

True

acidca · #8 09-21-2006, 04:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure if this is applicable, but SNG players make thier living from frequently pushing +0.3% edges or smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Jay Riall · #9 09-21-2006, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure if this is applicable, but SNG players make thier living from frequently pushing +0.3% edges or smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats soo funny?

carnivalhobo · #10 09-21-2006, 04:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My point is... it seems counterintuitive to me to press situations which amount to a coin flip when they will gladly call the same bets when you have a more significant edge.

Certainly over the course of 1000s of hands, if you run statistically even you will eek out a profit. But with due to variance, you will find yourself in a position of having to catch up until reach the positive side of variance.

Meanwhile-- you can get the same players chips with a better equity edge. It just seems to me like there must be an advantage against calling stations to not play huge pots with such minor edges when you can get the same money (and not put yourself in a position to play catch up.)

[/ QUOTE ]

the advantage is decreased variance, if you wanted to play the hand differently, just call his flop bet. The part you are missing is +EV is +EV, its a cash game, if the fish gets your stack, you can just reload.